What a week for Donald Trump: the Democrats’ debacle in Iowa, his triumph of a State of the Union address, his resounding acquittal by the Senate, his highest approval rating yet in the Gallup poll—which exceeds Obama’s at this point in his first term. While the November elections are three lifetimes away, politically speaking, Trump’s reelection chances are looking pretty good. Which brings us back to Iowa and the question of who will be his opponent in the fall.
The only thing that now appears to be a near certainty is that it will not be Joe Biden.
As I have been saying repeatedly on TV and in op-eds for months, the idea that a complete mediocrity like Biden—never the brightest bulb, and someone who clearly has lost three steps—would be the nominee was ludicrous on its face.
The basic argument for Biden has been a return to establishment norms. You know, the kind that sells out the American people and maintains the status quo in D.C. In what world do people think that is a winning message? In the era of Trump the outsider, the rise of national populism, and strong questions arising from many about our institutions and the rigged system of government in D.C., Biden’s appeal could only extend to the ruling class, the ones who want the rigged system to continue.
What happened in Iowa Monday night was egregious. A debacle, an embarrassment to the Democratic Party and its establishment—and not just on the entire vote-counting side of the evening (or should I say, week?), but also Biden’s results. Now that all of the votes have been counted (supposedly), it appears as though Pete Buttigieg has pulled out a narrow win. Though that win still raises questions, there are no questions about one thing: Biden got crushed.
He wasn’t even third.
In fact, he barely beat a backbencher from the Senate, Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn). The former vice president, the establishment’s great hope, got beaten by a Commie lover, a mayor of a smaller Midwestern city, and a fake Indian. While he apparently won two delegates, so far in Biden’s three runs for president, he’s won precisely two delegates total.
And now, bludgeoned and bloodied from Iowa, Biden goes to New Hampshire where he will be beaten like a rented mule. As the implosion of Biden unfolds, and Sanders likely wins New Hampshire, gaining even more momentum heading into Nevada (which he will likely win), the question then becomes who will the establishment coalesce around as the anti-Bernie? Little Pete? Pocahontas? Amy Klobuchar? Mini Mike?
It’s not likely to be Buttigieg, as he is polling around zero percent with one of the largest voting blocs in the Democratic Party, the black community. But the fact is at some point there will be the designated anti-Bernie establishment candidate; Elizabeth Warren is as good a choice as any for them, especially if one does the calculations that Obama might endorse her, accepting a loss in 2020 to set up Michelle in 2024.
Moving forward, however, Sanders is likely to rack up more wins and more delegates going into the July convention, but it’s highly unlikely that he will have the majority of delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot (trust me, Democrats will figure out how to manage that one).
In this scenario, the nominating vote goes to the second ballot, where super delegates, the final bulwark of the establishment, will be allowed to vote. Trust me, they aren’t going to be voting for Sanders. So what happens then? Sanders is likely to be denied the nomination, again, by the Democrat Party. But if he wins the nomination? Look for a replay of what happened in the recent British elections and the Democrats getting blown out just like Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party. This is all shaping up to be a lose-lose situation for Democrats and it is delicious to watch.
Mind you, all of this drama will be taking place roughly 100 days before the November elections. If Sanders is denied the nomination, does he walk out and say he’ll burn the whole thing down and run as a third-party candidate? Regardless of what he actually does, if this scenario does play out, what percentage of his base stays home and refuses to vote for the Democratic nominee? I would suspect a not insignificant one.
As reality crashes in on Democrats, which is surely an unusual feeling as they live in an alternate universe of denial, they will have to confront the fact that they have created this entire mess.
Democrats offered nothing to the American people over the past three years except “Orange Man Bad, must impeach” on the thinnest of pretenses; “impeachment” is and was nothing but a continuation of the soft and slow coup that’s been attempted over the last three years, an attempt to overturn the 2016 elections.
But as the Democratic Party has whipped its base into a frenzy over the quixotic pursuit of impeachment, they also must confront what they’ve been doing over the last few decades. They coddled the far Left, encouraged it, embracing the far Left’s small donor base and grassroots activists, never thinking that the beast might actually want more than just platitudes and scraps: it might actually want to be in power and consume its supposed masters.
Trump is ascendant, and likely will remain so through the fall. An economic downturn is highly unlikely, he’ll be facing one of the political pygmies (figuratively and perhaps literally) jostling to become the sacrificial lamb for him in November. The only real questions in my mind at the moment are not if Trump will win, but by how much and will his coattails pull the Republicans over the finish line for House and Senate majorities. I suspect he will and in so doing he will send Democrats into the political wilderness they so richly deserve.