With just over 7 months to go before the presidential election in November, polls indicate that former President Donald Trump is leading incumbent Joe Biden in all seven swing states.
As reported by Just The News, the series of polls conducted by Emerson College and The Hill shows President Trump leading Biden by 1% in Michigan, 3% in Nevada, Wisconsin, and North Carolina, and 4% in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. If these seven states all voted for President Trump in November, alongside the traditionally Republican states he is expected to hold, he would win 312 electoral college votes.
Notably, the polls are all head-to-head matchups between Trump and Biden, without including any third-party candidates. All of the major third-party candidates this year, including independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, are expected to take more votes from Biden due to their left-wing beliefs. While West has not yet made it on the ballot in any swing states, Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in the states of Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire; the Green Party is on the ballot in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina.
The consistent polling trends showing a lead for Trump have reportedly led to Biden having meltdowns in private, yelling angrily at his advisors as the election appears to be swinging back in Trump’s favor. There has been speculation that Biden may be replaced by another candidate before the November election, although he has already won enough delegates in the primaries to be the party’s presumptive nominee.
Primary results on both sides have also indicated a stronger performance for Trump in November, with the former president breaking numerous records for vote totals in either Republican Party primaries or primaries for both parties. In New Hampshire and South Carolina, his vote totals in the recent 2024 primaries broke the record-highs for either party in the history of both states, while his vote totals in Iowa, Nevada, Michigan, and others have beaten the previous records for highest vote totals won by the winner of a Republican primary in those states’ histories.
By contrast, Biden has faced increasing opposition in his own party’s primaries, sometimes not even in the form of another candidate. In the New Hampshire primary, Congressman Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) received nearly 20% of the vote against Biden, the strongest performance by a challenger to an incumbent president in a New Hampshire primary since Pat Buchanan ran against George H.W. Bush in 1992. Other states where Phillips performed well include his home state of Minnesota (7.8%), Maine (6.9%), Oklahoma (8.9%), Ohio (12.9%),
There has also been a strong campaign of Democratic primary voters casting a ballot for “Uncommitted” out of protest of Biden’s performance as president. In Michigan, over 100,000 votes were cast for “Uncommitted,” a total of 13.2% of primary voters in the state. Other states with high percentages cast for “Uncommitted” include Colorado (9%), Washington (9.9%), North Carolina (12.7%), Minnesota (18.9%), and Hawaii (29.1%).
All of the polls featured sample sizes of 1,000 registered voters, and have margins of error of 3%.