A new poll suggests that President Donald Trump is gaining significant ground with two key voter blocs that he previously lost in 2016 and 2020, improving his odds of a comeback victory in 2024.
As reported by The Hill, the poll was conducted by USA Today and Suffolk University. Its findings reveal that in a hypothetical rematch between Trump and Joe Biden, Trump receives 39% of Hispanic support while Biden is at 34%. The same poll showed President Trump with 37% support among voters under the age of 35, whereas Biden is supported by 33% of the same group; in 2020, Biden’s margin against Trump with this demographic was 24%.
Biden’s losses among younger voters have widely been attributed to him being viewed as not left-wing enough on their preferred issues, including global warming, student loan debt, and his handling of the Israel crisis in Israel’s favor.
Another key demographic where Biden is losing support is African-American voters. Although the poll shows Biden still overwhelmingly winning this bloc against Trump, his support is down significantly from 2020; whereas he received 87% of the black vote last time, the new poll suggests that he would only receive about 63% of their support.
The overall poll gives Trump a narrow lead over Biden in the general election, with 39% to Biden’s 37%. An additional 17% of voters said they would vote for a third-party candidate, of which there are several prominent choices this year compared to previous elections. This includes 20% of black and Hispanic voters and 21% of young voters who say they’ll vote for a third-party candidate.
Attorney and environmental activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., after previously mounting a challenge to Biden within the Democratic primaries, switched to an independent bid that is now garnering roughly 15% of the vote nationwide. In addition, far-left professor Cornel West is running as an independent, and two-time Green Party nominee Jill Stein is mounting a third run for the Greens.
The poll was conducted from December 26th to the 29th, with a sample size of 1,000 likely voters and a margin of error of 3.1%.