Democrats Panic in Florida

In the final weekend before the election, senior Democrats in key states such as Florida and Pennsylvania are sounding the alarm.

Despite record early voting, turnout numbers among black and Hispanic voters have senior officials in the Biden campaign “worried.”

According to Bloomberg, two-thirds of Latinos in Arizona are yet to cast a ballot. In Florida, half of black and Latino voters have not yet voted. In Pennsylvania, near three-quarters of black voters haven’t voted.

The analysis also shows a surge in non-college-educated white voters—a staunch Trump cadre.

In Florida, the situation is particularly concerning for Democrats. Republicans in Miami-Dade County have a nine percent turnout advantage. Biden needs to run the score in Miami-Dade, the state’s most-populous county and nearly 70 percent Hispanic.

In 2016, Trump lost Miami-Dade to Hillary Clinton by 30 points—around 290,000 votes—yet a poll last month found Trump trailed Biden by just 17.

Although the Biden campaign and its kept media estate plays down Florida’s importance, the reality is losing Florida, and the state’s 29 electoral votes, means losing the election.

The swing-state forecaster at FiveThirtyEight sinks Biden’s chances without Florida, plummeting to a charitable 50 percent when likely Republican swing states are in Trump’s column.

Yet, this ignores historical reality—Florida has voted with the winner in all but one presidential election since 1964.

No Democrat wins Florida without turning out big numbers and huge winning margins in Miami-Dade. Yet, Democrats are losing the turnout to Republicans, and are down from their 2016 numbers.

According to Politico, Democrats are concerned with paltry turnout figures among young voters of color, and soft Democratic voters. The gist of their position is: “We’ve got to stop the bleeding.”

That feature underlines the issue: “Part of the problem, according to interviews with a dozen Democratic elected officials and operatives, is the Biden campaign’s decision to discourage field staff from knocking on doors during the pandemic and its subsequent delay in greenlighting—and funding—a return to door-to-door canvassing.”

By Thursday, Republicans had turned out 59 percent of their voters in Miami-Dade, six points ahead of Democrats—double the margin Republicans enjoyed at this time in 2016.

Tellingly, among Hispanics that gap is nine points.

A poll for Telemundo on Thursday showed Biden leading Trump 48-43 percent among Florida Hispanics. Hillary Clinton managed 62 percent of Florida’s Hispanic vote in 2016 and still lost.

According to that poll, Cuban Americans are pushing President Trump to victory. After winning 54 percent among Cuban Americans, Trump now leads by 71 percent to Biden’s 23 percent.

Alongside Cuban Americans are those of Venezuelan and Colombian heritage, repelled by the Democratic Party’s socialist rhetoric.

Polls this week found President Trump bumping his lead in the Sunshine state. Rasmussen and Trafalgar have Trump three points clear of Biden, who leads by one point in the RCP average. Most concerning for Democrats is the dissolving of their early-vote lead in Florida.

That paltry Democratic turnout among black and Hispanic voters chimes with recent polls showing remarkable levels of support for President Trump among those blocs.

Rasmussen this week found black support for Trump averaged 30 percent. Among nonwhite voters (excluding blacks) that support averaged 45 percent. The Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) national tracking poll on Friday found President Trump winning the national Hispanic vote with 50 percent.

Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll on Friday found a three-point race between President Trump and Joe Biden, with Biden leading 49 percent to 46 percent with a 2.5 percent margin of error.

On Thursday, Biden held a 48 percent to 47 percent lead, identical to Trump’s lead on Wednesday. Rasmussen’s next poll is scheduled to be released on Monday.

Biden was 12 points ahead according to that same metric four weeks ago.

Rasmussen also found President Trump’s approval rating at 51 percent and above for the week—consistently higher than President Obama’s equivalent in 2012.

Meanwhile, Gallup found 46 percent of Americans approve of the president, and 52 percent approve of his economic handling, with national satisfaction doubling to 28 percent from September.

Gallup also said President Trump’s approval rating is slightly below numbers for reelected incumbents but is some eight points higher than losing incumbent presidents.

George W. Bush was reelected in 2004 with 48 percent job approval. George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter both lost with approval ratings below 40 percent.

On the economy, President Trump’s ratings match those of reelected incumbents. Indeed, Gallup recently found a record 56 percent say they are better off than four years ago.

At the national level, the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD)/TechnoMetrica Institute of Politics and Policy (TIPP) presidential election tracking poll on Saturday found the race tightening from 5.6 points to 4.8 points between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

IBD also found Biden garnering just 75 percent of the black vote, while President Trump takes 48 percent of the Hispanic vote, having led with Hispanics on Friday. Trump has a razor-thin lead among seniors.

Traditionally, the Democratic candidate needs around 90 percent of the black vote to win. Both Rasmussen and IBD suggest Biden is running far behind that number with just a few days left until election day.

Donald Trump managed eight percent of the black vote in 2016, with observers crediting low turnout among that bloc with dooming Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid.

About Christopher Gage

Christopher Gage is a British political journalist and a founding member of the Gentlemen of the Swig. Subscribe to his Substack, "Oxford Sour."

Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

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3 responses to “Democrats Panic in Florida”

  1. Polling is a technique that served us well in the days when everybody had a landline phone and everyone was in the phone book. Now, only a fraction of the voting public is reached, and only 6% of those are willing to respond. This is not a random sample. If it’s not random, it’s not scientific. If it’s not scientific, it’s predictive value drops to near zero. Pundits love to analyze polls because that’s how they make their money. The rest of us commoners have better things to do. Like go to a Trump rally!

  2. The subhead says it all: “Cuban Americans, alongside those of Venezuelan and Columbian [sic] heritage, appear to be pushing President Trump to victory in Florida.” What do these three groups of Hispanics have in common? They all fled turmoil in their own country, either due to Socialism (Cuba, Venezuela) or drug cartels (Colombia.) The Puerto Rican component of the Hispanic demographic have never experienced such turmoil, so they reliably vote Democrat, largely due to promises of “free stuff.”

  3. Young and firstime voters across the countryside are voting for freedom over lockdowns by a 2 to 1 marign, while their urban counterparts are too busy to vote. Afterall they have only 53 more looting days until Christmas!