Will black Americans not only reelect President Trump, but also write a new chapter of American political history?
Yes, that’s quite a question—one of cosmos-bending proportions. And so are the figures undergirding that statement.
According to Rasmussen, black Americans plan to vote for President Trump in larger numbers than in 2016. That’s not surprising.
Yet, we are not talking just a point or two adding to that year’s eight percent total, but a whopping 31 percent.
On Thursday, Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll found 31 percent of black likely voters plan to vote for Donald Trump.
That number must be an anomaly, right? A typo?
Apparently not. That figure has surged since Monday’s 27 percent finding, in lockstep with black approval of President Trump in the last week rising from 37 percent, before peaking at 46 percent, and settling on Thursday at 38 percent.
If that figure holds up—even half that figure—political history will be made. In the last ten presidential elections, the highest black vote share for a Republican was Bob Dole’s twelve percent in 1996.
Rasmussen’s national poll on Thursday found it was Biden’s turn to lead by one point with 48 percent of the vote, however.
On Wednesday, Trump had an identical 48 percent to 47 percent lead, while Biden led by two the day before. Biden led by 12 points according to that same metric four weeks ago.
Rasmussen also found the president’s approval rating remained at 52 percent—three points higher than President Obama on the same day in 2012.
At the national level, the Investor’s Business Daily (IBD)/TechnoMetrica Institute of Politics and Policy (TIPP) presidential election tracking poll on Thursday remained around four points between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, that gap flirting with just two points last week.
IBD says Trump now leads by four among seniors, solidifying a marked shift since the final presidential debate, while Biden’s support among black voters lags behind the 90 percent he needs to win. The Democratic nominee is running shy of Hillary’s 85-point black vote gap.
Interestingly, IBD says Trump’s support among Hispanics and Latinos is at 35 percent—a significant bump from his 28 percent showing four years ago.
Yet the shy vote question in that poll finds 45 percent think most of their neighbors will vote for Trump, and just 38 percent think their neighbors will mostly back Biden.
But what is most interesting in all of this polling is Rasmussen’s findings and there is no way of overstating this. If around 30 percent of black Americans vote for President Trump, black America will not only rewrite the next political chapter but rewrite the entire political book.
Even half of that figure, depending on the states in question, would condemn Democrats to sure defeat. It would mean around two million more black Trump voters than in 2016.
Robert Cahaly, chief pollster at Trafalgar, says his team, which popularized and uncovered the shy Trump voter theory, agrees with Rasmussen’s findings, and thinks recent endorsements of Trump from 50 Cent, Ice Cube, and other black celebrities, have helped unshy black Trump voters.
Of course, the reason black Americans are surging toward President Trump is because he has delivered on his promises. It might seem old-fashioned in the age of identity politics and victimology, but one’s melanin count tells us absolutely nothing about a person.
And President Trump has made good his promises to black America.
Before the pandemic, black unemployment was at a record low. Wages for black workers and all workers were rising for the fastest rate in a decade, especially for the lowest paid.
Poverty rates for black Americans and Hispanic Americans reached record lows. President Trump delivered record funding for historically black colleges. Perhaps most significantly, Trump secured criminal justice reform.
This is the same President Trump Democrats insist is a white supremacist. If President Trump is a white supremacist, he is doing an awful job.
Even left-wing CNN pundit Van Jones admits this, recently saying that President Trump “doesn’t get credit” for these achievements. People on Twitter, those who fancy themselves “allies” of black Americans, tried to cancel Jones for his heresy.
Last week, Jones appeared on Jake Tapper’s daily CNN broadcast. He said:
“I think it’s really unfortunate because Donald Trump, and I get beat up by liberals every time I say it but I keep saying it, he has done good stuff for the black community,” Jones said.
“Black college stuff, I worked with him on criminal stuff, I saw Donald Trump have African American people, formerly incarcerated, in the White House—embraced them, treated them well. There is a side to Donald Trump that I think he does not get enough credit for.”
Well, if those black vote figures hold up, President Trump will get more than enough credit.