You might not be interested in identity politics, but identity politics is interested in you. Conservatives, including those of a nationalist bent, love to tout the universality of their principles and denigrate the “tribalism” of the Left. This is all well and good, save for one detail: Leftist tribalism marches on, unfazed.
On Tuesday night, Ted Cruz, conservative Senator extraordinaire, kept his Senate seat by the skin of his teeth in Texas, the traditional stronghold of Republican power. The exit polling data reveals why.
Cruz absolutely crushed the white vote 68 percent to O’Rourke’s 31 percent. Had this election taken place in 1940 when Latinos made up around 10 percent of the Texas population and whites around 75 percent, Cruz would have decimated O’Rourke at the polls. But this election took place in 2018 when non-Hispanic whites make up only 60 percent of voters.
As it was, Cruz survived with only 51 percent of the vote. By 2024 when Cruz comes up for election once again, Hispanics will have surpassed whites as the largest ethnic group in Texas. There is no indication that a majority of Latino voters in Texas (or anywhere else for that matter) support limited government, constitutional conservatism, stronger borders, and gun rights. If they did, Cruz would have won them in droves. He did not.
Republican strategists can bury their heads in the sand all they want with their endless preaching on the importance of interracial “outreach” and the “natural conservatism” of Hispanics. Reality remains untouched by their dreamy visions. At the current rate, the Republican Party has a bleak future. With each passing year Texas creeps ever closer toward a permanent California blue. The 1.2 million immigrants that cross over our borders every year make this transition inexorable.
When that day finally comes, almost certainly within the next two decades, the Republican Party will cease to exist as a meaningful or distinct electoral force in our politics. It might still have a presence as a center-Left party of business, but certainly not as a vehicle for recognizable conservatism on the national stage.
Democracy is a math problem. And the Democrats have the solution: if you can’t convince people to vote for your policies then get new people.
The most effective strategy Republicans have in response is to try and win an ever-greater share of the white vote. But at some point, even if whites vote as monolithically as blacks, the Republicans will run out of bodies to get to the polls. That day is fast approaching. Unless something drastic happens, the writing is already on the wall.
Republicans squandered their chance at power these last two years. It is increasingly unlikely they will ever get another.
The clock is ticking.
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