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Iran’s Nightmares

Details of the recent limited Israeli retaliatory strike against Iranian anti-aircraft missile batteries at Isfahan are still sketchy. But nonetheless, we can draw some conclusions.

Israel’s small volley of missiles hit their intended targets, to the point of zeroing in on the very launchers designed to stop such incoming ordnance.

The target was near the Natanz enrichment facility. That proximity was by design. Israel showed Iran it could take out the very anti-missile battery designed to thwart an attack on its nearby nuclear facility.

The larger message sent to the world was that Israel could send a retaliatory barrage at Iranian nuclear sites with reasonable assurances that the incoming attacks could not be stopped. By comparison, Iran’s earlier attack on Israel was much greater and more indiscriminate. It was also a huge flop, with an estimated 99 percent of the more than 320 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles failing to hit their planned targets.

Moreover, it was reported that more than 50 percent of Iran’s roughly 115-120 ballistic missiles failed at launch or malfunctioned in flight.

Collate these facts, and it presents a disturbing corrective to Iran’s non-stop boasts of soon possessing a nuclear arsenal that will obliterate the Jewish state.

Consider further the following nightmarish scenarios: Were Iranian nuclear-tipped missiles ever launched at Israel, they could pass over, in addition to Syria and Iraq, either Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the West Bank, Gaza, or all four. In the cases of Jordan and Saudi Arabia, such trajectories would constitute an act of war, especially considering that some of Iran’s recent aerial barrages were intercepted and destroyed over Arab territory well before they reached Israel.

Iran’s strike prompted Arab nations, the US, the UK, and France to work in concert to destroy almost all of Iran’s drones. For Iran, that is a premonition of the sort of sophisticated aerial opposition it might face if it ever decided to stage a nuclear version.

Even if half of Iran’s ballistic missiles did launch successfully, only a handful apparently neared their intended targets—in sharp contrast to Israel’s successful attack on Iranian missile batteries. Is it thus conceivable that any Iranian-nuclear-tipped missile launched toward Israel might pose as great a threat to Iran itself or its neighbors as to Israel?

And even if such missiles made it into the air and even if they successfully traversed Arab airspace, there is still an overwhelming chance they would be neutralized before detonating above Israel.

Any such launch would warrant an immediate Israeli response. And the incoming bombs and missiles would likely have a 100 percent certainty of evading Iran’s countermeasures and hitting their targets.

Now that the soil of both Iran and Israel is no longer sacred and immune from attack, the mystique of the Iranian nuclear threat has dissipated.

It should be harder for the theocracy to shake down Western governments for hostage bribes, sanctions relief, and Iran-deal giveaways on the implied threat of Iran successfully nuking the Jewish state.

The new reality is that Iran has goaded an Israel that has numerous nuclear weapons and dozens of nuclear-tipped missiles in hardened silos and on submarines. Tehran has zero ability to stop any of these missiles or sophisticated fifth-generation Israeli aircraft armed with nuclear bombs and missiles.

Iran must now fear that if it launched 2-3 nuclear missiles, there would be overwhelming odds that they would either fail at launch, go awry in the air, implode inside Iran, be taken down over Arab territory by Israel’s allies, or be knocked down by the tripartite Israel anti-missile defense system.

Add it all up, and the Iranian attack on Israel seems a historic blunder. It showed the world the impotence of an Iranian aerial assault at the very time it threatens to go nuclear. It revealed that an incompetent Iran may be as much a threat to itself as to its enemies. It opened up a new chapter in which its own soil, thanks to its attack on Israel, is no longer off limits to any Western power.

Its failure to stop a much smaller Israel response, coupled with the overwhelming success of Israel and its allies in stopping a much larger Iranian attack, reminds the Iranian autocracy that its shrill rhetoric is designed to mask its impotence and to hide its own vulnerabilities from its enemies.

And the long-suffering Iranian people?

The truth will come out that its own theocracy hit the Israeli homeland with negligible results and earned a successful, though merely demonstrative, Israeli response in return.

So Iranians will learn their homeland is now vulnerable and, for the future, no longer off limits.

And they will conclude that Israel has more effective allies than Iran and that their own ballistic missiles may be more suicidal than homicidal.

As a result, they may conclude that the real enemies of the Iranian nation are not the Jewish people of Israel after all, but their own unhinged Islamist theocrats.

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About Victor Davis Hanson

Victor Davis Hanson is a distinguished fellow of the Center for American Greatness and the Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. He is an American military historian, columnist, a former classics professor, and scholar of ancient warfare. He has been a visiting professor at Hillsdale College since 2004, and is the 2023 Giles O'Malley Distinguished Visiting Professor at the School of Public Policy, Pepperdine University. Hanson was awarded the National Humanities Medal in 2007 by President George W. Bush, and the Bradley Prize in 2008. Hanson is also a farmer (growing almonds on a family farm in Selma, California) and a critic of social trends related to farming and agrarianism. He is the author of the just released New York Times best seller, The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation, published by Basic Books on May 7, 2024, as well as the recent  The Second World Wars: How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won, The Case for Trump, and The Dying Citizen.

Photo: A member of the Israeli military personnel examines a part of an Iranian ballistic missile, recently located in an open area near the southern city of Arad, on April 24, 2024. Iran carried out an unprecedented direct attack on Israel overnight April 13-14, using more than 300 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, in retaliation for a deadly April 1 air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Nearly all were intercepted, according to the Israeli army. (Photo by Oren ZIV / AFP) (Photo by OREN ZIV/AFP via Getty Images)

Notable Replies

  1. Avatar for task task says:

    Now it is apparent that Iran is a Paper Tiger when it comes to technology. However, there is nothing about Iran’s intention that should take a back seat to their incompetence, when it comes to the West reacting, because the day will arrive when the ideology of this 7th century, evil, tribal, theocratic state will manage to do, en masse, what it did on October 7, 2023. It plans to obliterate Israel and, unfortunately the Biden/Obama Regime treats Israel like President Carter treated Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the Shah of Iran, in 1979. Jimmy Carter made a lot of mistakes, besides establishing the Department of Education, that gave us the present educational monopoly run by the National Union for Idiot Teachers. You cannot separate the Union from what is happening in Columbia University any more than you can separate the efforts, to remove the Shah in 1979, that allowed a bunch of Iranian students to install the homicidal, religious, megalomaniac, Ayatollah Khomeini. Iran is a religious State, that has no tolerance for Jews and Christians. And it is vicious. The election of Barack Obama was, to the US, in 2008, no different than what we allowed to happen, and abetted, in Iran in 1979. Iranian students were sold a bill of goods, just as Cubans were once sold a bill of goods, and America was, similarly, sold a bill of goods when they elected an Islamic, racist, as intent in destroying Christian America as Iran is in destroying Israel. How has it turned out in Iran? How has it turned out in Cuba? And how is it turning out in America? America and Israel are not run as a theocracy despite being being inhabited by people of faith. In Muslim countries, the adhan rings out over the land for each of the five daily prayers. Try that in America and Israel.

    America is no longer operating as the Constitution Republic as originally designed. The CCP has bought access to many of the bureaucratic levers of power and are quite content to allow the Biden/Obama Regime to fundamentally change America. Joe Biden was clearly the Manchurian candidate and Obama was clearly Iran’s choice. The symbiotic relationship, between these two similar authoritarians, is responsible for the creation of a nightmarish political cyborg designed to destroy America’s Constitution, originally crafted to repair the shortcomings of nearly a millennia of British common law and replace it with the best government imaginable to protect the lives, and liberties, of individuals so that they could pursue what is in their best interests without trespassing on similar interests of others.

    Ultimately, post the destruction of America’s Constitutional system which should now be obvious when considering what the current despotic Executive is doing, despite existing laws and SCOTUS decisions, the CCP and Islam will have to divide America’s spoils and there is no way that China will treat the Islamic Biden/Obama hybrid regime any differently than it treats Muslims in China. Dittos for those LGBTQ Columbia University idiot students who identify with terrorist Hamas. Like the students in Iran in 1979, who helped depose the Shah and install the Ayatollah, six months afterwards they either said nothing or their tongues were slit as they were being executed.

    VDH provided clarity. But additional clarity is needed. The question that still looms begs for an answer. Considering Iran’s intentions why aren’t Israel and America intent on destroying every last vestige of their military and terrorist capability? The answer has to be because Iran has already infiltrated American politics at the very top. Obama is Iran’s proxy and Obama’s proxy, Joe Biden, is every bit as dedicated to do the biding of Iran’s Ayatollah as are all Islamic Mullahs. After all he was well paid by the CCP to do so.

  2. This proves that Obama’s theory of changing the balance in the Middle East is imploding. However, I do believe that there are Iranians at the highest level of our gov - starting with Valerie Jarrett but many, many more in the State Dept and DOD.

  3. “Iran must now fear that if it launched 2-3 nuclear missiles, there would be overwhelming odds that they would either fail at launch, go awry in the air, implode inside Iran, be taken down over Arab territory by Israel’s allies, or be knocked down by the tripartite Israel anti-missile defense system.” But a Biden administration would encourage understanding and patience!

  4. Israel has proven that the West produces citizens with superior ingenuity, intelligence and pure gumption.

    The Islamic hordes, on the other hand are craven in their appetites, their stupidity and their cowardice.

    Iran survives because the Joseph Robinette Junior lunatic asylum uses them to line its pockets.

    This latest foreign aid giveaway to Ukraine, the Middle East and to illegal immigration is a Joseph Robinette Junior cash cow.

    Many in the Senate and House profit, too. That’s why they voted for it.

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