[Last week, we examined the historical anomaly of Mr. Donald Trump attempting to become only second president in American history to win non-consecutive terms of office and the challenges of endeavoring to do so against the incumbent who defeated him. (President Grover Cleveland being the first and only one to accomplish this feat.) Now, we analyze a second historical anomaly in play with which both former Presidents Trump and Biden must contend.]
For the first time in American history, regardless of which major party candidate wins, upon taking the oath of office, the president-elect will become a lame duck. The reason, of course, is the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution, which, in pertinent part, holds:
“No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once.”
One may be tempted to dismiss the fact of America’s first lame duck election as grounds for winning a bar bet but little else. Yet, it is a critical factor in the pending presidential election.
To wit, polls have shown Democrats are not confident that Mr. Biden is their strongest potential presidential nominee, and most have hoped he would not again seek their nomination for a second term. Still, resigned due to a lack of challengers, the party will likely renominate Mr. Biden. (As previously noted: I have previously argued that Mr. Biden will ultimately not be his party’s nominee in 2024. If he is, rarely will I ever be happier to be mistaken.)
Not that Mr. Trump has cornered the market on his own party’s affections. As his primary proved, he retains a hardcore base large enough to win the nomination; however, many Republican voters remain adamantly opposed to not only his renomination but to his reelection as president. Typifying such “never Trump” Republicans is one new to their ranks, former Vice President Mike Pence, who has publicly stated his refusal to vote for his former ticket mate.
Unsurprisingly, then, in a nation that craves entertainment, the Trump vs. Biden rematch spurs as much enthusiasm in the electorate as a sequel to Gigli.
Shauneen Miranda’s March 28th Axios article cites an AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll that found: “Roughly a quarter of Americans expressed satisfaction or excitement about either candidate winning another term.” In other words, roughly 75% of Americans are dissatisfied or unexcited by both Trump and Biden.
Interestingly, too, Republicans were more excited about Trump winning the rubber match than Democrats were about Biden prevailing: “40% of Democrats said they’d be “extremely/very” excited if Biden won, while 54% of Republicans said they’d be “extremely/very” excited about another Trump administration.”
Given the rubber match’s dearth of enthusiasm and inspiration, what is motivating the respective partisans and the remainder of the electorate? Donald Trump. He is literally driving both GOP and Democrat voters and the undecideds.
Indeed, the title of Ms. Miranda’s article says it all: “Dems fear Trump win more than Republicans fear Biden: Poll.” And the poll’s numbers speak for themselves: Two-thirds of Democrats are “extremely/very fearful” of a Trump win, but only about half of Republicans feel the same level of trepidation regarding a Biden victory. Among all voters, roughly 40% feared a Trump triumph, while about 30% feared a Biden win.
Oh, and Ms. Miranda also cites another article noting voters are angry, too. Good times….
Recapping: voters are angry, afraid, and unenthused about the Trump vs. Biden presidential rubber match. Mr. Biden has a better hold on his base, not due to his merits but due to his party’s fear of his opponent. Yet, while Mr. Trump is the driving force motivating both parties bases, he has less of a hold on his own GOP base because Republicans fear his opponent less than the Democrats fear Mr. Trump. Critically, the overall electorate shares this view.
What lurks behind the lack of enthusiasm is also what may cost Trump come November: America’s first lame duck election.
While not necessarily realizing the unprecedented historical anomaly, Americans understand the practical implication: whoever of the two known quantities wins in 2024 can only help or harm the country for four years. True, the stakes remain great, but the stakes are halved—four years as opposed to a potential eight.
Perhaps, then, for unenthused, undecided voters, the lame duck election will provide an even greater temptation to not decide. Contrarily, however, it could provide a greater incentive to vote. If they err in promoting their principles and pursuit of happiness by voting for the wrong candidate, at least it is only for four years, not potentially longer.
Yet, for undecided GOP voters who are leery of Mr. Trump and his MAGA supporters, the lame duck election’s calculus is not the same. If Mr. Trump is elected, he will, of course, be limited to only four more years in office. But former President Trump’s victory will lead to his supporters and the GOP-Populist movement being cemented within the Republican Party, both in its grassroots and its establishment. Thus, the reelection of Mr. Trump will not be merely a finite four-year span. It has longer-term ramifications for the party.
This is the message Mr. Pence and other “never Trump” Republicans are trying to send undecided GOP voters: “Do not vote for Mr. Trump. The republic and Republican Party cannot survive the political resurrection of Mr. Trump and his MAGA supporters.” This argument could well find a receptive audience, as undecided GOP voters are likely the reason fewer Republicans fear Mr. Biden winning. Thus, for these GOP voters, the calculus “it’s only four more years” becomes a measurement of what they believe they and the country can endure if their vote knowingly helps reelect Mr. Biden.
As a result, given the candidates’ respective ages and stages of their careers, come January 2025, one man will be a presidential lame duck; the other man will be a political dead duck. For undecided GOP and independent voters, the question is this: Is it in the country and their party’s best interest to make Mr. Biden the lame duck and Mr. Trump the dead duck?
An American Greatness contributor, the Hon. Thaddeus G. McCotter (M.C., Ret.) served Michigan’s 11th Congressional district from 2003-2012, and served as Chair of the Republican House Policy Committee. Not a lobbyist, he is a frequent public speaker and moderator for public policy seminars; and a Monday co-host of the “John Batchelor Radio Show,” among sundry media appearances.