Trump-mentum!

In November, Trump beat the Democrats; now, he is pulling away. And it’s over a month before he’s inaugurated! Democrats have reason to worry. They are not only confronting a populist; they are now confronting a popular one.

According to Real Clear Politics’s average of national polling, on December 6, Donald Trump’s favorable rating went positive for the first time since RCP has been computing it—over nine years. As of December 13, Trump’s rating is +2%, and he has been rated positively in four consecutive national polls.

These results may not seem like much…until you compare them. On January 3, Trump was -14.9%; on January 26, 2023, he was -21.1%; on April 9, 2016, he was -35.2%; and in his first RCP rating, on July 4, 2015, Trump was -39.3%.

Trump’s amazing personal recovery doesn’t stop there. He now has a better favorable rating than the other major Washington political figures: Biden is -13.5%; Harris is -4%; Speaker Mike Johnson is -9%; House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is -1%; and Senate Majority Leader Schumer is -13.3%.

Despite being at his all-time high, Trump’s favorability is likely to rise as he continues benefitting from comparison with Biden’s past performance.

Again, according to RCP’s 12/13 average of national polling, 61.9% of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track. That they hold Biden responsible is clear.

Biden’s 12/13 RCP job approval average is -16.2% (39.6% approving, 55.8% disapproving). Bad as this is, Biden’s net negative is considerably worse on specific issues: 18.8% on the economy, 23.2% on foreign policy, 28.2% on immigration, 29.3% on inflation, and 19.3% on crime.

The upshot is Trump has considerable upsides from simply not being Biden and ample opportunities to advance by addressing Biden’s failings.

A decided majority of Americans want a disruption of the status quo. The large percentages saying America is on the wrong track and disapproving of Biden’s performance prove this. It also means more Americans are open to the disrupter that Trump is.

America’s elite get none of this. This is not surprising. After all—and by definition—the elite support the status quo, because they rest on top of it.

America’s elite still thinks November 5 was somehow an aberration. They do so, despite the evidence: Trump has increased his popular vote percentage in three consecutive presidential elections.

Believing their own woke rhetoric, America’s elite believes America is going to wake up, regret, and reject Trump. Unlikely.

Average Americans see too many problems. These problems are all opportunities for Trump. Average Americans believe these problems are serious as well as numerous. This severity gives Trump more time and latitude to address them. After all, it took the Biden-Harris administration four years to get America into its current hole.

Trump also has the means to address these problems. The Biden-Harris administration further stretched the executive branch’s power. They leave him with many tools to act unilaterally.

Also, and unexpected by most, Republicans have House and Senate majorities. These are not large, but they are still majorities—and powerful if they hold together and follow his agenda.

But Trump had majorities in 2017 too and had difficulties. Yes, but much has changed in eight years. The Republicans in these majorities are different, and the Democrats confronting them are too.

Trump is no longer seen as the fluke he was eight years ago. There will be less resistance to him within his own party, a party far more like him now than it was in 2017.

And the resistance to him within the Democrat Party must be more circumspect than it was eight years ago. Six of the seven swing states Trump won on November 5 have ten Democrat senators; Trump came surprisingly close to winning five other states with ten Democrat senators. Yes, the far-leftists from California, Massachusetts, and New York will still vote their leftism, but a substantial number of Democrats will have one eye on their voters instead of both on their ideologies.

And America itself is very different than it was eight years ago. This time, Trump follows Biden, not Obama. The Biden-Harris administration was American history’s most leftward. As much as America would like to forget Biden-Harris, it won’t anytime soon; there are simply too many failures.

The large percentages disapproving of Biden’s performance and believing America is on the wrong track are well above Trump’s current favorability. This means that Trump has room to increase. The result for Trump is that delivering on his disruption could increase his popularity.

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J.T. Young is the author of the new book, Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left, from RealClear Publishing, and has over three decades’ experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, and OMB, and representing a Fortune 20 company.