Communist China Is Moving Toward War: Separating the Signal From the Noise

History illustrates that statesmen often make one great mistake: the belief that the status quo will continue. Because there is peace today, there will be tomorrow too. That is the “fog of peace” that leads to a strong tendency to dismiss warnings and indications of aggression that cut against the bias of the status quo. A second danger is one to which Americans are particularly prone. That the national security community can only focus on one problem at a time. The war in Ukraine or the unrest in Syria occupies much of the bandwidth of the national security community and senior decision-making officials, despite the existence of our geographic and functional combatant command organizations. This allows bad actors to exploit a lack of focus that prevents national leadership from being able to separate the “signal from the noise” that exists in the modern world of seemingly endless digital communications 24/7/365.

Both biases are present now as the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is certainly moving towards war against Taiwan and very likely against the U.S. and its allies like Japan. The intense political warfare waged by Beijing against Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S. is increasingly becoming kinetic. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) calculating and deliberate actions may disappear at times as they are superseded by crisis events, such as in Syria this past week, in Ukraine, in Israel, or the next crisis to come. Yet, an objective assessment of the CCP’s intentions and capabilities has long warned about this coming problem.

In 1962, Roberta Wohlstetter published Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. Her major argument was that the U.S. was surprised by the Japanese surprise attack on December 7, 1941, but in fact, it should not have been. The U.S. had ample indications of a Japanese attack, but those “signals,” accurate indications of a Japanese attack, became lost in the “noise” of other intelligence, operations, and the peacetime expectations of civilian and military decision-makers.

Today the PRC’s actions are exploiting our biases much in the same way as they move towards war. CCP dictator Xi Jinping has repeatedly sent strong signals, including most recently by informing the Biden administration of the “Four Red Lines” the U.S. cannot cross—actions that it must not support or undertake. These “Red Lines” were the major theme of Xi’s meetings with President Biden at the 31^st APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in November in Lima, Peru. Most important was Xi’s personal demand that the U.S. obey them. A clear signal to the incoming Trump administration. Xi stated that the “Four Red Lines” are: the Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and China’s development rights. The Communist tyrant is telling the future U.S. president that: 1) the U.S. must not support an independent Taiwan; 2) the U.S. must not interfere in Chinese democracy and human rights; 3) the U.S. must not support the overthrow of the CCP; and 4) the U.S. must not interfere with China’s “rights” for advancement and development. At root, Xi is telling Biden and Trump that America must accept the PRC’s conquest of Taiwan, not labor to overthrow Communist tyranny, and accept the PRC’s aggression as it works to supplant the U.S.

Of great importance is that these political warnings are augmented by military actions. The recent detection by the Taiwanese military of 53 Chinese military aircraft and 11 People’s Liberation Army Navy ships, as well as eight other PRC vessels, around the island is a cause of concern, as it could be a preparatory signal for a future People’s Liberation Army (PLA) action against Taiwan and American forces in the region. Worth noting is that 23 of those aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan’s northern, southwestern, and eastern Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). This fits the pattern of the PRC tightening the noose around Taiwan while attempting to normalize the increased number of naval and aerial incursions against Taiwan.

The “new normal” of these violations only goes in one direction—more. As reported by the PRC-friendly South China Morning Post, “Since 2021, the total number of military aircraft entering Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) has jumped significantly.” While the number of aircraft and ships varies, the frequency is undeniably increasing. In essence, tomorrow there will be more violations than today in the PRC’s effort to prepare for a surprise attack while not generating a response. Additional indicators include the evidence of flight testing aboard the PLAN’s 80,000-ton aircraft carrier Fujian (Type 003), which has just returned to port in Shanghai from its fifth sea trial since September. Furthermore, across the Pacific, in California, a 39-year-old PRC citizen was arrested for flying a drone over Vandenberg Space Force Base’s airspace as he sought to return to the PRC. No doubt, the drone was collecting intelligence and is part of a pattern of drones violating airspace around sensitive sites, including the greater Norfolk area, where the U.S. has many sensitive facilities.

In a fundamental respect, the problem that the U.S. faces is the reverse of the one before the attack on Pearl Harbor. While the Japanese were furtive and sought to mask completely their preparations for attack—Tokyo did everything to minimize the signals Washington might receive—in contrast, the PRC is broadcasting them. In reality, there are a plethora of signals demonstrating the PRC’s aggressive intentions and capabilities. It has become a form of noise Wohlstetter could not have conceived in 1962, yet she would recognize that the result is the same. Unfortunately, U.S. decision-makers are at great risk of ignoring the true signals amidst the noise and distractions thrown up by the CCP and their advocates in the U.S. and elsewhere.

The stark fact of life in international politics today is that the Sino-American relationship is broken because Beijing has declared war, explicitly declaring a “People’s War” against the U.S. in 2019—although it has been at war with the U.S. since 1949—and has chosen to target and supplant the U.S. Indeed, Wohlstetter would recognize the problem and would no doubt be—in equal measures—flummoxed and saddened that despite the great expansion of the national security community, Washington cannot identify an overt threat. Even one that proclaims that it is and by its actions shows that it is. The U.S. national security community assessment of the PRC threat remains clouded by the “fog of peace.” It is time for a new administration that can detect the signal from the noise and prepare this nation for the coming conflict… and prepare it to win.

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James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer are authors of Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure. The views expressed are their own.