Much of what can be taken away from the fall of the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad can be traced back to the outset of the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas. This tragic failure of Israeli border security intensified the conflict between Israel and Iran, which finances both Hamas and Hezbollah as proxies.
Syria had routinely been used as a front line in Iran’s regional war on Israel. Its surface-to-air missile batteries and fighter squadrons threaten Northern Israel while Syrian radar provides valuable intelligence to Iran.
It is worth recalling how Assad was able to remain in power through the role played by Barack Obama, who famously refused to support opposition to Assad’s dictatorial rule as well as enforcement of his “red line” against Assad’s use of sarin and chlorine gas to kill his people in 2013.
Incredibly, Assad was allowed to partner with Russia and join with Iran to prop up his regime and establish an air and naval base outside of U.S. control. This reversed more than fifty years of U.S. policy to minimize Soviet influence in the Middle East. It’s another underreported legacy of Obama’s failure in the foreign policy sphere. You rarely see Washington D.C. think tanks mention it.
Obama’s Middle East priority was always to appease Iran, which was intended to make Iran the dominant regional force while working to marginalize Israel. It was this appeasement that allowed Iran to place weapons, artillery, and radar systems on the Syrian border with Israel, placing Israeli civilians in extreme danger of being annihilated.
The anti-Semitic tendencies of Obama ultimately led to the Hamas massacre on October 7. Obama’s tendencies also led to the fall of Assad and completely dissolved any credibility our 44th president ever had as a geopolitical strategist. By supporting America’s adversaries and sticking his thumb in the eyes of our allies, Obama emboldened Iran’s quest to assert dominance and finance terror in the region for decades.
(As an aside, what impact will Assad’s fall have on the nomination of Tulsi Gabbard to become Trump’s National Security Advisor? Will Democrat senators try to tie her to a 2017 visit to meet with Assad while she was a sitting Democrat member of the House of Representatives, saying she’s unfit for that role?)
The Final Failure of the Biden Administration’s Mismanaged Foreign Policy
Even with much opposition and outright blockage from the Biden administration in defending itself from Iranian-backed terror, Israel has proven itself as a strong regional force compared to Iran, which has been largely exposed as a paper tiger. This will likely have downstream consequences as we will examine further.
It seemed to us that the final fall of the Assad regime came with unexpected speed. In its final days, it bears a striking resemblance to other world historical events since the end of World War Two; specifically the fall of Saigon in 1975, the crumbling of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and, most closely, America’s shameful exit from Afghanistan in 2021. Like the fall of Kabul three years ago, it can be attributed directly to the incompetent trio of self-proclaimed foreign policy experts: Joe Biden, and his two foreign policy lightweights, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and especially National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
Is calling Blinken and Sullivan lightweights too harsh? We don’t think so. This trio has a long list of foreign policy blunders to their credit. Besides the disasters in Afghanistan and now in Syria—where they attempted to hamstring Netanyahu in his attempt to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah—these two were integral parts of the Obama foreign policy team that stood by as Vladimir Putin annexed the Crimea region from Ukraine in 2014. It’s a pretty imposing resume of failure.
Sullivan, especially, is central to all three events. This is the same Jake Sullivan who, on September 29, 2023, just eight days before the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, claimed that the Middle East “is quieter than any time since 9/11.” With all the intelligence he can access, how could he make such a monumentally clueless statement?
The other question we should ask is how has someone as incompetent as Sullivan continued to rise to higher levels of responsibility over two Democrat administrations? Shouldn’t the American people demand that Sullivan appear before Congress and explain how he has misread global hot spots and mismanaged U.S. policy in the Middle East before he exits on January 20, 2025?
Instead, we’ll likely see Blinken and Sullivan get highly paid contributor gigs on CNN or MSNBC. That is if these outlets survive in their current forms, as both media outlets are apparently up for sale. Or, with the battle for control over Fox News among Rupert Murdoch’s four children (three of whom lean to the left), might one or both end up there as contributors?
How Israel Should Move Forward and What Are the Long-Term Implications?
Israel’s regional interests concerning Syria cannot be overstated. Israel has taken control of Syria’s side of Mt. Hermon, the highest mountain in the region that provides a clear view into Lebanon and Syria, as well as incoming drones from Iran. This move also provides a secure and unimpeded air corridor from Israel to Iran now that Israel has destroyed Syria’s air force and navy.
What transpires next is anyone’s guess. But if history is any guide, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is likely to change drastically and quickly.
The fact that Assad chose to exile himself and his family in Moscow instead of Tehran tells us that Iran cannot protect Assad. It also tells us that Israel is on its way to defanging Iran and possibly eliminating the mullahs ruling over the harsh theocracy that Iranians have been suffering under since 1979.
The real development in the Middle East is not the collapse of the Assad regime. It is the possible return to democracy for Iran and the liberation of its oppressed people. Now that Israel has destroyed Syria’s military capability and key infrastructure, it sends a clear message to Iran: “We will no longer hesitate to defend ourselves from your provocation through your proxies—we will carry these military strikes anywhere we choose. You have been warned.”
Here’s another question to consider. Will the incoming Trump administration take the initiative in the Middle East as it already has with regard to Ukraine to try to bring about a lasting peace? Trump has a strong record in this regard with the Abraham Accords of 2020. However, through their actions over the last four years, Biden, Blinken, and Sullivan have undone what Trump accomplished. Things are measurably worse in the region than when Trump left office in 2021.
Or will Trump stand back and let Israel finish the job they have started? And should the mullahs of Iran—who have suppressed the will of its citizens for over four decades—be worried that they will be the next domino to fall?
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Richard Truesdell is a former consumer electronics retail executive and automotive travel photojournalist. In the last 25 years, he has visited more than 35 countries on six continents. A former high school history teacher with a BA in Political Science from Waynesburg University, he is a lifelong Conservative moderate who has turned his thoughts and keyboard to political commentary and popular culture. A cross-section of his writings can be found here.
Keith Lehmann is a retired consumer electronics industry executive who has written extensively on technology, transportation, and international travel. Living in Southern California for over fifty years, he has first-hand exposure to societal and cultural happenings of the left and submits decidedly realism-based, Conservative viewpoints, much of which can be found on his Substack.
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