One of the most surprising developments of the 2024 election has been the massive inroads that were made by the Republican party in the traditionally deep-blue states of New York and New Jersey.
According to The Hill, some Republicans believe that these states could be in play in the future following President-elect Donald Trump’s strong performances in both states. Whereas both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden won New York by 23 points in 2016 and 2020, respectively, Vice President Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) won the state by just 11 points. This marks the best performance in the Empire State for a Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Neighboring New Jersey was won by Hillary Clinton by 14 points in 2016, and by Joe Biden by 16 points in 2020. But in 2020, Harris’ margin of victory is less than 6 points, which once again marks the strongest Republican presidential performance in the state since 1988.
Republican strategists in both states were quick to declare that Harris’ catastrophic performance could set the Democrats back in these states, potentially making them competitive for the GOP again.
“We saw historic numbers for Republicans in New York, and that’s really something we can build upon,” said David Laska, spokesman for the New York GOP.
“They’re not focused on economic issues and social issues and energy mandates, but the trend matters because Republicans have their best shot after two terms of Governor Murphy and a Democrat making everything more expensive,” said New Jersey Republican strategist Jeanette Hoffman.
Various issues have been cited as the primary factors in the unexpected Republican strength this year, including the immigration crisis, law and order, and the state of the economy.
Both New York and New Jersey have seen surprisingly close gubernatorial elections in recent years. In 2021, Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli came within three points of unseating incumbent Governor Phil Murphy (D-N.J.), in the closest gubernatorial election in the state since 1997. Ciattarelli has already declared a second candidacy for the 2025 election, where Murphy will be term-limited out of office. In total, seven Republicans and six Democrats have filed to run in 2025.
In 2022, then-Congressman Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) lost to Governor Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.) by just over six points, marking the closest gubernatorial election since 1994. Zeldin, who survived an assassination attempt on the campaign trail, primarily campaigned on law and order in the midst of surging crime rates. His campaign was credited with helping the GOP flip four seats in the U.S. House of Representatives that same year. Hochul has declared her candidacy for a second full term in 2026; Zeldin was announced by President-elect Donald Trump as the nominee for the next Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
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