The Biggest Republican Failure of 2024

There are virtually no downsides to the Republican landslide in the 2024 election.

President Donald Trump returns to an historic second, non-consecutive term in the biggest popular vote victory ever for a Republican and the biggest electoral result for the GOP since 1988. Republicans recaptured the Senate for an even bigger majority than they had during his first term and are set to slightly expand their majority in the House; moreover, this new congressional majority appears to be much more ideologically aligned with President Trump’s America First agenda than the previous majority under the now-disgraced former Speaker Paul Ryan.

However, aside from a handful of regrettable losses in the U.S. House and several state elections, there is one failed candidate in particular who deserves a much closer look at why their race was unsuccessful.

The Rise and Fall of a Would-Be Star

While the GOP is currently enjoying a healthy Senate majority of 53 seats, their chances of expanding it any higher came to an end in the state that has since become the new national laughing stock when it comes to the snail’s pace at which ballots are counted: Arizona.

Even though outstanding ballots remain to be counted, it is increasingly clear that the Republicans will come up frustratingly short in their efforts to recapture one of the Senate seats in the Grand Canyon State. And they have one person to blame for this: the nominee herself, Kari Lake.

Ever since she first barged onto the scene with her run for governor in 2022, the former television anchor has, for reasons never fully understood, managed to capture the imagination of many conservatives across the country. Polling projected that she would comfortably win the election and become the next Governor of Arizona… until she didn’t.

It is certainly possible that mass voter fraud, especially out of the infamous Maricopa County, could have been responsible for her upset loss to the far-left Katie Hobbs. Perhaps Hobbs’ role as then-incumbent Secretary of State made it likely that she illegally orchestrated her own election, using the power of her office to interfere with the final results. Or perhaps Lake simply fell victim to the unexpected fizzling-out of the “red wave,” which never came; after all, three of the other five statewide candidates that year also lost, some by larger margins than Lake did, while others came even closer.

Following that loss, Lake continued to be treated like a conservative rockstar. She fought against the results of the gubernatorial election in court, claiming that voter fraud stole the race from her. Although her efforts to get it overturned were unsuccessful, she still dominated the conservative speaking circuit at events such as CPAC. She even briefly became a fan favorite for Trump’s running mate. She also became one of the few candidates to be ruled out by Trump himself.

But even after building up what appeared to be strong political capital on the right, Lake could not avoid a repeat of her last race, despite even higher stakes than the last cycle and a more positive environment for Republicans across the nation. What happened this time, as Lake sought to replace outgoing Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, was an inexcusable and completely avoidable fumble of a perfectly winnable election.

Snatching Defeat From the Jaws of Victory

First and foremost, any potential arguments that voter fraud once again robbed Lake of her latest election must be swiftly buried. The best counterargument is Donald Trump.

President Trump won all three crucial Rust Belt states, as well as Georgia, by margins of roughly 2% or less. He won North Carolina and Nevada by just over 3%.

But in Arizona, the state with the worst system of vote counting in the country and one of the states that slipped out of his grasp four years ago, he is currently leading Kamala by six points. This is due in large part to a decisive margin in Maricopa County, the heart of the state’s corruption, where he is leading by just over four points. These are both significantly better than his margins in 2016, where he won the state by just under four points and won Maricopa by less than three points.

By contrast, Lake is losing to far-left Congressman Ruben Gallego by nearly 2% statewide. In Maricopa, Gallego leads her by just over 4%. Taken together, these reflect an 8-point swing between Trump and Lake at both the state level and in Maricopa.

It is true that a handful of other Senate hopefuls did not make it over the finish line either. Nominees Eric Hovde and Mike Rogers in Wisconsin and Michigan, respectively, were leading on election night before seeing their fortunes suddenly reverse the following morning; Rogers is down by a mere 0.3% while Hovde trails by just 0.9%. In Nevada, Sam Brown is losing by a margin of roughly 1.4%.

But none of those candidates had the benefit of coattails as long as President Trump’s were in the state of Arizona. Even if some fraud is at play, it makes no sense that Trump would dominate the state so decisively while Lake is on the verge of a second consecutive loss. After all, if the powers that be really could rig it this massively against Lake, then why wouldn’t they also rig it against Trump himself?

Despite the mainstream media’s efforts to characterize many Republican candidates in Arizona this year as “election denialists” like Lake, even those who lost on the same statewide slate as Lake did two years ago wound up with greater political success this time around. Abe Hamadeh, the nominee for Attorney General in 2022, who lost by less than 300 votes statewide, easily won his election to Congress from the 8th district. Former State Representative Mark Finchem, the nominee for Secretary of State who lost by nearly five points in 2022, successfully defeated incumbent State Senator Ken Bennett in the primary for State Senate District 1 and went on to win the general election.

The nature of her loss is even more embarrassing when one considers just who exactly she was bested by. Whereas other statewide Democrats in Arizona, such as Senators Sinema and Mark Kelly, or Governor Hobbs, have at least tried to present themselves as moderates, Gallego was unapologetically progressive and leftist, particularly on immigration. Even an October surprise scandal revealing details of his rather messy divorce wasn’t enough to dissuade voters from choosing him over the scandal-free Lake.

A Lake in a Drought

The mountain of evidence explaining how and why Lake ultimately lost is actually quite staggering, even from an objective standpoint. Nothing tells this story more bluntly than the exit polling for voters based on party affiliation.

First and foremost, Lake struggles heavily with independent voters. In her bid for governor, she lost the independent vote to Hobbs by a 7-point margin, 52% to 45%. This time around, she appears to have lost independents to the Democrats once again, albeit by a narrow margin of two points, 49% to 47%. By contrast, President Trump won independents in the state by six points, 51% to 45%.

But just as stunning, if not consistent, is her failure to hold onto a significant portion of the Republican base. In 2022, 9% of Republicans broke ranks to vote for Hobbs, compared to just 4% of Democrats who crossed over to vote for Lake. In 2024, the disparity is even more jaw-dropping: at least 10% of Republicans in Arizona voted for Gallego, while a measly 1% of Democrats voted for Lake.

It is painfully clear that Democrats are much more unanimously opposed to Lake, deeming her to be “far-right” and an “extremist.” Apparently, majorities and pluralities of independent voters agree. But what could possibly explain the massive defections from the GOP’s ranks? Lake’s supporters might point the finger at lingering fans of the late John McCain, whom Lake disparaged and who have since been commanded by McCain’s daughter Meghan to oppose Lake at all costs. Yet a similar animosity between President Trump and McCain was apparently not enough to cost him the state this time around.

Other angry Lake fans will blame outgoing Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate GOP leadership for not funding Lake’s campaign and instead giving $50 million to Larry Hogan’s failed bid in Maryland. But doesn’t that argument essentially refute itself? After all, if $50 million wasn’t enough to save Hogan, why would it make a difference in Lake’s race? Simply throwing money at a bad candidate does not turn them into a good candidate; just ask Senators Beto O’Rourke and Jaime Harrison. Or, for that matter, President Kamala Harris.

Another refutation of the money argument can be found in one of the other most disappointing Republican losses in 2024: Blake Masters’ defeat in the primary for Arizona’s 8th congressional district. Raising just over $6.3 million for his campaign—most of which was self-funded—Masters made almost as much money as all five of his opponents combined, times four. He still lost the primary by a 4-point margin to Hamadeh.

No, money is not the answer. Neither is simply blaming RINOs who feel that Lake insulted their dead idol. Her flaws go much deeper than that.

The Wolf vs. the Lamb

As far as this race is concerned, her brutal primary battle against Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb did not do her any favors. According to numerous reports, it was Lake herself who convinced Lamb to even run for Senate in the first place, only to inexplicably join the race on her own later on. This flip-flop led to an unfortunate rivalry between two former allies, and even Lake’s attempts to skip out on the primary debates against Lamb could not prevent the inevitable exchange of bitter insults between the two.

In the end, Lamb managed to significantly outperform polling expectations and garnered almost 40% of the primary vote, despite being outraised by Lake 5-to-1, having virtually no statewide name recognition, failing to receive the Trump endorsement, and not having nearly as much of a campaign infrastructure as Lake did. This result proved that there was indeed very widespread Republican opposition to Lake’s second candidacy, and it wasn’t McCain-loving moderates who voted for Lamb.

Sheriff Lamb has established a reputation over many years as a hawk on immigration and has been sounding the alarm on the border crisis long before Lake ever entered the political scene. He has built a distinct and charismatic image for himself, complete with his tactical vest and signature cowboy hat. But Lake, on the other hand, still has not managed to establish a clear political identity to call her own, nor has she made any one particular issue her defining agenda item. Outside of parroting generic MAGA talking points, Lake is nearly indistinguishable from any other candidate running for office by claiming to be as pro-Trump as possible.

If there is one issue that has come to define Kari Lake’s entire political career, it would be voter fraud. Perhaps too much of it.

More than any other issue, Lake spent much of her time on the campaign trail in 2023 and 2024 simply talking about how her last election was allegedly stolen from her. In addition to the endless complaints leading to many voters becoming skeptical of her grievances, Lake fell into the trap that President Trump smartly avoided: rather than talking about the issues that actually affect her would-be constituents—from the border crisis and inflation to endless foreign wars and the left’s cultural degeneracy—she just kept talking about herself and how voter fraud cost her personally, rather than how it impacted the people of Arizona.

When Lake did try to talk about other, non-election integrity issues, she threw out the baby with the bathwater, almost literally. When the Dobbs ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade led to a nearly 200-year-old law being reinstated in Arizona that almost universally banned abortions, Lake had a golden opportunity to take the unapologetically pro-life stance, especially as a woman.

Instead, she flip-flopped on the very law that she once supported, condemning it and calling for a more pro-choice—that is, pro-abortion—law to repeal it and take its place.

Such concerns raised in this election about her conservative bona fides—or lack thereof—led to some activists digging into her past as a news anchor, and they ended up finding no shortage of proof that Lake wasn’t always the right-wing firebrand she makes herself out to be. She previously supported Barack Obama, praised Bruce Jenner’s decision to “transition” into a “woman,” and even took pictures with a drag queen. With all of this taken into consideration, it is not hard to imagine why 40% of Republicans voted for her opponent in the primary.

It is clear that, through a series of critical mistakes that one could only make either through deliberate sabotage or sheer incompetence, Lake has managed to alienate all of the key demographics: Democrats, independents, moderates, and conservatives. This could not stand in starker contrast to President Trump, who managed to score big gains with all of these same groups.

Out to Pasture

Kari Lake may have had potential once upon a time. But her record speaks for itself. She has lost where others have won, and the irrefutable numbers behind her defeats are unsustainable for any future campaigns.

In the end, former Arizona GOP Chairman Jeff DeWit was right. It would have been for the good of the party if Lake had stayed out of the 2024 election and simply waited to run again in the 2026 midterms. The backlash to his remarks and his subsequent resignation overshadowed the highly suspicious and deeply untrustworthy nature of Lake secretly recording their conversation and then releasing it to the world, another clear indication of poor character.

Just like her overwhelming focus on how she was supposedly affected by voter fraud, this episode suggested that Lake has a tendency to make everything about herself. Another incident that supports this notion is the time she tried to make herself the center of attention at a Trump rally in August until event staff had to use the teleprompter to order her off the stage when her speech ran for too long.

The last time a single individual cost Arizona Republicans two winnable races, former Congresswoman Martha McSally ended up losing both Senate seats back-to-back; she was bested by Sinema in 2018 and then lost a seat, to which she had already been appointed, against Kelly in 2020.

McSally was undoubtedly a political moderate. Lake, for what it’s worth, most definitely presents herself as a hardcore conservative. But in the end, she is plagued by many of the same flaws—if not even more—that McSally had and now has a similar track record of 0-2 to show for it.

If nothing else, Lake is clearly quite talented at throwing red meat to the base and getting the usual Trump rally crowd fired up; she will almost certainly retain a somewhat sizable and loyal following among the grassroots. Given her lengthy media career, she could do well hosting her own podcast, or perhaps a show on a conservative network. She is clearly a better pundit than she is a candidate.

There is no shortage of strong—and electable—conservatives in Arizona, from Congressmen such as Paul Gosar and Andy Biggs to Congressman-elect Hamadeh, State Senator-elect Finchem, and, of course, Sheriff Lamb. For the good of the voters of Arizona, it is time for Kari Lake to finally retire from electoral politics so that the party can turn to other candidates on the bench.