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Read The Opponent Not the Polls

For recovering politicians, this is the most dangerous time for a relapse, especially those living in a swing state. Their televisions, radios, and social media are chock with political news and ads. This can spark a recrudescence of old vices, such as arguing at the top of one’s lungs at an offending ad or slanted news story, and, worse, then conjuring a way to counter it and win the election for their side. It may even spur them to contact old friends still in the political arena and urge them to incorporate their “unexpectedly” inspired idea into their campaign. Such a loss of realistic expectations and understanding of what others are going through constitutes sure signs the poor creature is reverting to a politician’s solipsistic mindset.

Further exacerbating the risk of their relapsing, interested friends from across the country send recovering politicians’ links to ads, news, or tweets to get their reaction. This can further trigger bouts of the ex-pol shouting to the heavens—or elsewhere—and reengaging the sordid political world they had renounced.

Yet, by far the most frequent temptation occurs when friends from across the country contact the recovering politician to see if he or she has any insight into how their swing state and/or the nation will ultimately choose for president (and often who will control both chambers of Congress). These contacts are usually precipitated by the inquirer seeing a poll and asking if the recovering politician believes it is “accurate.” Tragically, the recovering politician may immediately commence addressing the merits of the poll’s methodology; the voting history of various constituencies vis-à-vis the poll results; and sundry other micro- and macro-critiques and speculations regarding the election—including their view of “what they need to do to win!”

When the relapsed pol hits rock bottom, it “ain’t that pretty at all….”

Of course, the friends of an ex-pol do not want to be the reason he or she goes cannonballing back into the political cesspool. So, for their sake and that of my fellow recovering politicians, I offer this bit of advice to avoid the temptation to relapse posed by “the polls say” query: Watch the opponent, not the polls.

The virtue of this approach is to allow the inquirer to refrain from dragging the recovering politician back into the electoral fray for a simple reason: the inquirer can figure it out on their own. Granted, it isn’t foolproof, since fools will be too benighted to interpret an opponent’s political machinations. Still, it can help reduce the number of “the polls say” questions and, ergo, the near occasion of temptation for the ex-pol to reengage.

Presently, the Democrat nominee’s presidential bid exemplifies why understanding what a campaign is doing is the best barometer of how a candidate is performing with the electorate—not a poll.

On the micro-level, one can view the Harris campaign’s targeting of individual constituencies, which have traditionally comprised integral parts of the Democrat coalition. From young African-American men to Hispanics to Arab-Americans to Jewish-Americans, the Harris campaign’s assumed, almost unanimous, and necessary support has been lacking. As a result, we see not only an increase in her campaign’s messaging to these constituencies, we see the surreal hectoring of young black males—and males, in general—by surrogates, such as the Obamas. Asking voters to support your candidate indicates your campaign is okay; urging voters to support your candidate indicates your campaign is troubled; criticizing voters as not being “man” enough to vote for your candidate indicates your campaign is cooked. Other targeted messages abound within the Harris campaigns, including the emphasis on increased federal spending within the African-American community (in one of the most patronizingly racist appeals imaginable); abortion (though it is hard to imagine those who believe abortion is the overriding issue not already voting for the vice president); and the big lie about “Project 2025” being Donald Trump’s post-election agenda—all of which are designed to unite and rally a presently eroding and unenthusiastic Democrat voter base.

On the macro-level, be one a political junkie or a well-adjusted person, the Harris campaign’s desperation is patent for all to see, notably by those Democrat candidates’ running from the radical leftist Ms. Harris and racing toward the middle:

August’s “politics of joy” has devolved into October’s “Trump is Hitler.”

Now, do you really need to risk a recovering politician’s relapse to recognize the Harris campaign is circling the drain?

***

An American Greatness contributor, the Hon. Thaddeus G. McCotter (M.C., Ret.) served Michigan’s 11th Congressional District from 2003-2012 and served as Chair of the Republican House Policy Committee. Not a lobbyist, he is a frequent public speaker and moderator for public policy seminars and a Monday co-host of the “John Batchelor Radio Show,” among sundry media appearances.

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About Thaddeus G. McCotter

An American Greatness contributor, the Hon. Thaddeus G. McCotter (M.C., Ret.) represented Michigan’s 11th Congressional district from 2003 to 2012 and served as Chair of the Republican House Policy Committee. Not a lobbyist, he is a frequent public speaker and moderator for public policy seminars, and a Monday co-host of the "John Batchelor Show" among sundry media appearances.

Photo: A low angle view of a long line of people waitng to vote in the elections.

Notable Replies

  1. Kammie recently made two campaign stops and spoke to particular constituencies and seemingly forgot the internet is forever. In one stop she spoke to a Jewish group where she pledged that she will forever support Israel in its efforts to confront terrorism. The other group was predominately Muslim, so she pledged to do everything to assist Palestinians in rebuilding Gaza and hold the Israelis responsible for its genocidal actions.

    There was once a time where both speeches could be made in the relative safety of knowing one group would not learn what was said to the other group. No more it seems.

    Donald Trump may just win Michigan because Muslim Americans refuse to vote for a duplicitous Harris. In Pennsylvania, Trump might clinch the state due to unwavering support by the state’s 350 thousand Amish population. In North Carolina, Trump voters are literally crawling over broken glass to get to the polls.

    I’ve read at a couple of sites that Harris voters are more enthusiastic than those of Trump-----based on the split amongst the two parties on early voter turnout. This ignores the fact that mass early voting on the Republican side is a very recent change. Democrats also point out that the gender split more favors women over men. That may be true----BUT isn’t it taking for granted that those women are voting Democrat? Where women represent half the population, is it too far fetched to think that conservative women also represent half of all women voters?

    I just read that New Hampshire is very much in play and might become a newer swing state. And it seems there is a virtual tie in Virginia.

    All of this to say, I’m not just looking at electoral votes, I’m also looking at the popular vote. Where Biden topped Trump by seven million votes in 2020, it now looks like Trump might edge Harris out in that category. Whew!

    How nice it would be to be able to claim an actual mandate for a second Trump Administration. I doubt it would shut up the rabid Left, but it might give them pause.

  2. THREE DAYS FROM NOW.

    In three days, we will fundamentally reset America, put it back on ​track, correct its now wayward course.

    Reset it away from the depravity, the crimes against humanity mentality of?

    THE traitor; traitor to it, humanity, Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness, who? Alas, for him, and his cabal of devious, ​"evil most foul​" ones, he​ / they will find that, “Elections (do​ indeed) have consequences.”

    And, not just the ones he lied his way, manipulated his way into winning with false, Manchurian candidate lies, enticements; “shovel ready jobs” and now transparent​ as can be - myriad, countless subterfuge​s and chicanery. Nor, can he and the LEFT - ​as in 2020 rely on an outright steal - via “The best voter fraud organization ever formed.” as Biden happily informed us in 2020.

    He thought he could, thought he would, be able to? With gleeful delight, joyful abandon destroy America; make it be in keeping with, march in lock step, goose step with?

    His vicious, repulsive, utterly corrupt and vile heart’s desire;

    bring it down into ruins, lay it low - so​ much so that?

    “All the king’s horses and all the king’s men couldn’t put it back together again”;

    ​make it so it couldn’t ever again get up again, stand tall and fight - for those concepts most, reviled​, detested, hated by him, revolting to him - individual liberty and freedom, and thereby?

    Make the world safe for tyrants, tin pot dictators like himself; safe for evil and dash hope - turn into a nightmare - the America​ dream what is, has been and always will be for humanity - the Great Experiment ​(the best chance going); which ​has always since it was a beginning thought in the minds of the Founding Fathers - bode​d, being?

    The best hope for you and me to fulfill our God given rights - as men and women​, for our children who will follow us - that we are entrusted to protect - for us to live happy lives together.

    To follow our heart’s desires, to seek truth as WE choose, ordain it to be, perceive it and follow it thereby, all the while - trying our ​level bests​ - messing up as is the way of life at times but picking ourselves up -sometimes against all odds and, soldiering on - to fulfill our destinies as dictated by OUR choices,

    not “Big Brother Obama”. But rather instead​, be free?

    To follow our heart’s desires, for better or worse, and “be all we can be”;

    based on OUR free will not his wanton, craven, grasping, imperious dictate and diktats that;

    "We know good, better, best for you; more than you know what’s best for you than you; you stupid deplorable, lower than low “garbage” person.

    May he, who thought he was the “Chosen one” Karl Marx had in mind; hoped one day would arrive to wreak havoc on hope, spread despair and put the world irrevocably on the way,​ into "​It’s too late to ​turn back now"​ mode, ​on the way, down the road to perdition? He? ​I predict that he?

    Who promised - with wily Cheshire cat grin in obvious evidence and testament to his true intentions - to​?

    “Fundamentally change America six days from now”? that

    THREE days from now​, he will face? Face the beginning of the end of his Machiavellian machinations with total despair and, ​if, “Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus” - then?

    ​Never from that day forward - till his inglorious end - have a single day of rest lacking​, wanting in regret most profound?

    Evil does as evil is, what goes around comes around and?

    In the end it is always undone - as Hitler found out - awhile​ back, awhile ago - in a dark, cold bunker in Berlin ​- all alone in dread;

    with none, but dead and dying surrounding him. And? Then?

    Decided to​ do the world a favor, rid the world​ of himself and make it a better place,

    by his own hand, ​do himself in, and join them​ in hell.

    Not to - as Dickens might, yea likely would say, “Not to put too fine a point on it!”

  3. Now, do you really need to risk a recovering politician’s relapse to recognize the Harris campaign is circling the drain?

    All things being equal, I would whole-heartedly agree with Mr. McCotter. The signs of campaign panic he notes are indeed an indication of a campaign in deep peril…were it not for insidious, pervasive and Uniparty approved election fraud.

    In spite of some encouraging court wins in Pennsylvania and other swing states, the election fraud machine in all the swing states is very much alive and functioning. Whether early voting and an expected large voter turnout on behalf of Donald Trump will be enough to offset the expected vote fraud remains to be seen.

    But it strains credulity that the DC junta would steal the 2020 presidential election only to turn power back over to the same opponents they stole from. Marxist regimes aren’t known for “peaceful transfers of power”, if they transfer at all.

  4. Some (perhaps many?) believe that Biden—the most powerful person in the world (theoretically)—was shoved out of the race by his party. Where did they get the power to do that and also shove aside Dr. Jill in the process? Well before Biden dropped out, polls showed that Trump had a big lead. But we’re supposed to believe that went the other way once Harris became the Democrat front-runner? I’ll have a No-Way Burger and an order of lies with that. Harris got her party closer to having a semi-decent shot at stealing the election. But nothing changed about the reality that Democrats would lose this time. The cause of their woes is that their brand is busted.

    The 2010 Midterms showed that it needed retooling after two years of the Obama presidency. Polls in 2012 said that he should have lost his reelection bid. By late that year, he hadn’t done much of anything to change that, although he did reluctantly approve of the raid on the Bin Laden compound. It wouldn’t have been enough for a win. After the election, there were allegations of voting ‘irregularities’ and ‘finding’ voters using clever algorithms. Democrats didn’t take Trump seriously enough to bring back that magic (or enough of it) for 2016, and Hillary’s ‘deplorables’ remark didn’t come out of the clear blue. Democrats had the cheat machine up and running again (and then some) for 2020. This year, after four long, grueling years of the Biden Disaster, a steal is too far out of reach, hence the trash talk. So, yes, a trash-talking politician is the most reliable poll. Democrats need a Politics 101 refresher because the collateral damage can be a you-know-what.

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