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Pennsylvania Headed for a Photo Finish, New American Greatness Polling

The latest American Greatness poll shows Donald Trump tied Kamala Harris in battleground Pennsylvania, with both candidates at 47%, in a survey of likely voters conducted by North Star Opinion Research. The poll sampled 600 likely voters and the sample included more Democrats than Republicans.

The Pennsylvania race for US Senate also remains tight, as Dave McCormick has rallied materially vs. prior AG polls and is now -3%, within the margin of error. Presently, three-term incumbent Bob Casey polls at 45%, with McCormick at 42%.

Reflecting a big shift toward early voting for Republicans, Trump has a slight lead among early voters, 48-47%. Among blue-collar men, Trump leads by a better than 2-1 ratio, 62-30%. Catholic voters in Pennsylvania, a group that comprises one-quarter of the electorate there, prefer Trump by +21%, 59-38%.

On the issues, 19% of Pennsylvania voters believe that Harris’s reversal on a border wall is “genuine.” Regarding her reversal to pro-fracking, in the energy-rich Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, 31% of likely voters believe her shift is “genuine.”

By a +12% margin, voters said they were “better off” under Trump vs. Harris and Biden, 50-38%.

About The Survey 

This survey of 600 likely voters was conducted October 22-26, 2024, with 20 percent of interviews completed with live callers on landlines, 50 percent with live callers on cellphones, and 30 percent by text-to-web, using cellphone numbers from the voter sample obtained from Data Trust. Quotas were set for county, age, gender, party registration, education, and race, and the sample was minimally weighted to reflect registration by party.

The margin of error for the full sample is ±4.00 percent when respondents split 50 percent for one response and 50 percent for another. The margin of error is higher for subgroups: ±5.66 percent for subgroups of 300 and ±9.80 percent for subgroups of 100, for example.

Resources:

American Greatness Survey results

Survey Highlights

 

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Photo: CALIFORNIA, UNITED STATES - SEPTEMBER 10: Former President of the United States Donald J. Trump and Vice President Harris's first Presidential Debate is displayed on a TV screen in Foster City, California, United States on September 10, 2024. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images)

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