Democrats Concerned Over Voter Registration Numbers in Key States

The latest voter registration numbers out of four battleground states have raised alarms among Democratic strategists, with just 21 days left before the 2024 election.

According to The Hill, voter registration data in the states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania signal a significant decline in Democratic support while simultaneously showing a rise in Republican registrations.

Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College, compared and contrasted the registration numbers in Nevada between the 2020 election and this year, pointing out that “Democrats are down about 300,000 voters and Republicans are up about 70,000.” Meanwhile, “nonaffiliated independent voters are up about 83,000, 85,000 voters.” In 2020, Joe Biden narrowly won Nevada over former President Donald Trump by just under 33,600 votes.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats had a lead of about 666,000 over Republicans in statewide voter registration back in 2020. In 2024, that lead has nearly been cut in half, down to just 354,000. In 2020, Pennsylvania was decided by just over 80,000 votes.

This trend, Yost noted, signals a strong level of “disenchantment with the party in power in Washington” among voters in the Keystone State, which is widely considered the most important swing state.

In North Carolina, Democrats used to lead Republicans in voter registration by over 393,000. In 2024, that margin has been cut down by two-thirds to just 130,000. President Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by nearly 75,000 votes, in defiance of most polls projecting that Biden would win the state.

Arizona is one of the few swing states where Republicans already had the advantage in voter registration, yet have increased their leads even further. In 2020, Republicans recorded a registration advantage of about 130,000. In 2024, that margin currently stands at 259,000, nearly double the 2020 total. Biden apparently won the state in 2020 by just over 10,000 votes, although widespread and credible accusations of voter fraud and other irregularities have left that result in doubt to this day.

This significant margin lends support to recent polls suggesting that Arizona is well out of reach for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris (D-Calif.). A poll released in late September by Suffolk University and USA Today showed President Trump with a 6-point lead in the Grand Canyon State, as well as a 4-point lead in the state’s most populous county, Maricopa County. The latest poll from the New York Times and Siena College similarly gives President Trump a 6-point advantage in the state.