The latest polling suggests that the Republican Party is likely to retake control of the United States Senate in November, presenting further complications for the ruling Democratic Party regardless of the outcome of the presidential election.
As reported by Newsmax, the poll by the New York Times and Siena College focuses on three Senate races this year: Montana, Florida, and Texas. Despite Democratic efforts to take the former swing state of Florida or break through the traditionally red stronghold of Texas, both incumbents there are polling ahead of their challengers.
In Texas, Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) currently has 48% support against his Democratic challenger, Congressman Colin Allred (D-Texas), with 44%. In the same poll, former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) by 7 points. And in Florida, Senator Rick Scott (R-Fla.) maintains a commanding lead of 9 points, with 49% over Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s (D-Fla.) 40%. President Trump leads Harris in Florida by 13 points.
But most crucially, the race for the Montana Senate seat appears all but won for the Republican Party. Incumbent Senator Jon Tester (D-Mont.) has long been a target of the GOP as a Democrat in a deep red state, but has managed to win re-election twice in 2012 and 2018 after his initial election in the blue wave of the 2006 midterms. This year’s Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.), currently holds an 8-point lead over Tester, while Trump leads Harris by 17%.
If Tester were to lose, it would bring the Senate to a 50-50 tie between the Republicans and Democrats when accounting for the four independents who currently caucus with the Democrats. One of those independents, Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), is retiring this year, and his seat is universally expected to be won by Governor Jim Justice (R-W.V.), the Republican nominee. This would give the GOP a 51-seat majority and, if they retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives, complete control of Congress next year.
Other Senate seats besides the ones covered in the Times poll are also beginning to cause worry for Democrats ahead of the November election. A recent poll from Quinnipiac University showed the Senate race in Michigan at a tie, with Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and former Congressman Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) at 48% each. And in Wisconsin, internal polling shared with Axios from the campaign of incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.) showed her with a mere 2-point lead against Republican challenger Eric Hovde (R-Wisc.).
Other Senate seats that the GOP has targeted this year include Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. Momentum has been building for Republicans in recent days, with numerous polls from the likes of Quinnipiac and Emerson College showing President Trump gaining ground in most of the swing states, now either leading Harris or tied in enough states to put him across the threshold of 270 electoral votes.
It is one thing to possess a majority in the Senate. It is quite another to make good use of it. A lifetime of disappointment with the Republican Party has taught me not to view Republican majorities as advancing conservative/constitutionalist initiatives.