According to new American Greatness polling, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a polling dead heat tie in Arizona, with each claiming 48% among likely Arizona voters, including leaners.
Looking at subcategories, Trump leads by +3.5% among blue-collar voters with only a high school degree, while Harris leads by 6% among those with at least some college.
Trump continues to outperform his 2016 and 2020 performances among Hispanics, earning 41% of the Hispanic vote presently in Arizona.
On the key metric of “were you better off” financially under President Trump vs. now under Kamala Harris, 59% prefer the economy of the former president with 32% preferring the Harris/Biden economy.
In addition to the economy, immigration remains the top issue for Arizona voters. 55% of Arizona voters rank those two issues in their personal top three when offered a wide range of policy areas. “Protecting democracy” is a very distant third behind economy and immigration, cited almost exclusively by Democratic voters.
When voters were asked who they trust more on the border, they gave a substantial +22% advantage to President Trump 56-34%. On national security, they also trust Trump more with a +11% advantage, 52-41%.
By +3%, voters prefer Trump on the question of “Which candidate is more authentic and genuine?” The breakdown shows 47-44%, with 8% unsure.
17% of Arizona voters are still deciding their vote. Similarly, 18% say the race there is “too close to call.”
When asked about neighboring California, the home state of Kamala Harris, 18% of Arizona voters believe that the Golden State is on the “right track” while 61% say it is on the “wrong track” and 21% are unsure.
About The Survey
TechnoMetrica conducted the American Greatness/TIPP survey from September 3 to September 5. The online study included a sample of 1,015 registered voters in Arizona provided by our panel partners. Using our likely voter model, we identified 949 respondents as likely voters in the November election. After the survey’s completion, TechnoMetrica weighted the dataset by gender, age, race, education, geographical region, and party affiliation to reflect known benchmarks. The weighted registered voter sample composition is 27% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and 38% independents. The survey’s credibility interval (CI) is ±3.2 percentage points for likely voter results, meaning the study is accurate within this range 19 times out of 20 if all likely voters in Arizona had been surveyed. Due to smaller sample sizes, subgroups based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region have higher credibility intervals.
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