Support for Kamala Declines After Democratic National Convention

Vice President Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) has seen her support go down after the Democratic National Convention (DNC), a rare occurrence in modern American politics where the party’s convention did not provide the nominee with a polling bump.

As reported by Breitbart, the poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies, taken on August 29th and featuring a sample size of 2,500 likely voters, shows just 44% in favor of Kamala and 42% in support of former President Donald Trump. Another 8% of respondents remain undecided, while 4% would vote for one of the remaining third-party candidates.

Compared to the previous Redfield & Wilton poll released on August 21st, in the midst of the DNC, this marks a three-point drop for Harris, and a net swing of one point in Trump’s favor.

Trump’s numbers have only increased following the withdrawal of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who endorsed the former president and appeared onstage with him at a rally in Glendale, Arizona. The August 29th poll saw an increase in “undecided” respondents by four points following Kennedy’s withdrawal, while the “other” option rose by four points from 0%, indicating a stronger-than-expected showing by the other third-party candidates in the race, including Libertarian Party nominee Chase Oliver, Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and independent candidate Cornel West.

Harris’ numbers are also down significantly compared to Biden’s polling at this same point in the 2020 election cycle. In a Redfield & Wilton poll taken on August 20th, 2020, with 2,000 respondents, Biden led Trump by about 10 points, with 49% to Trump’s 39%. At that time, another 9% were undecided and 3% were in support of third-party candidates. This means that Haris is underperforming Biden by 5% while Trump is outperforming his own polling by 3%.

In the survey, respondents said that the most important issues to them were the economy, immigration, and abortion. When asked which issues would most impact their vote, 62% said it would be the economy, while 36% said immigration and just 34% said abortion.

In other metrics, President Trump is once again the favorite to win the election in multiple betting markets, leading Harris by 5% in the Polymarket odds. The latest version of pollster Nate Silver’s predictive model gives Trump a 55.8% chance of winning the electoral college, compared to Harris’ 44% chance.