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Plot Twists and Power Plays: The Changing Face of Global Politics

Aficionados of old-style mystery novels savor the skill with which their authors ravel and then unravel the plot twists that fuel their books.  The simple rule that the culprit is generally the least likely person can be spun out in so many different ways. A large part of the pleasure afforded by the genre is in trying to unscramble the puzzle that the writer has constructed for us.  Agatha Christie was a great master of the clever plot twist, as readers of Who Killed Roger Ackroyd? (to take just one example) will know.

True, the magic is not universally effective. The critic Edmund Wilson, for example, hated mystery novels, as he explains in his essay “Who Cares Who Killed Roger Ackroyd?” and elsewhere. But, to adapt Lincoln, for those who like that sort of thing (and I include myself in that group), Christie offers the sort of thing one likes.

Padding about London for the last week or so, I have been struck by the sense of impending plot twists. There are some local entertainments. Most of those are offered by Keir Starmer, the new, well-groomed, neo-Socialist Prime Minister.

As with the left-wing National Front in the recent election in France, Starmer’s Labor Party did not actually get a very large percentage of the vote. But because of the first-past-the-post proportional scheme that both Great Britain and France employ, he enjoys a huge majority in the Commons.  Among the plot twists Starmer has in mind are nationalizing the railroads, abolishing the hereditary peerage, raising taxes, and, in general, making government bigger in order to serve the government.

Starmer is also a conspicuous friend of the EU, which is another way of saying that he is a Brexit skeptic. Opinions differ on what he will be able to do about Brexit.  Most people I have spoken with, including a few EU enthusiasts, believe that, on that score at least, his influence will be modest. Indeed, many people see the next five years as a sort of penance enacted by Tory incompetence on the country.  The optimists believe that when the next election rolls around,  the Tories will roll back into office and straighten out the mess Labor will inevitably leave in its wake.

I am not so sure, not least because England is rapidly becoming a Muslim country, replete with demands for Sharia courts and all that follows. My own hope is that Nigel Farage or some kindred spirit who succeeds will introduce his own, more salubrious plot twist and save Britain for the British.

I hope, but I am not holding my breath.

The news from home has been full of plot twists.

Contemplate, if your constitution is up to it, the spectacle of Joe Biden, the first certifiably senile leader of the soi-disant free world.

Some commentators have suggested that Biden went to his home in Rehoboth, New Jersey, not to recover from COVID, as the official line would have it, but to prepare himself for his political ostracism. Some say it will happen as soon as this weekend.

The volume and size of the democratic chorus calling for Biden to withdraw have been growing.  Senator Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Madame-Tussaud stand-in Nancy Pelosi—these and other top Democrats have called on Biden to “preserve his legacy” and resign.

No one knows what plot twists await us in the unraveling of Joe Biden. Even as cries for his departure grow, his own communications indicate a resolve to carry on.  It’s not even clear, short of invoking the 25th Amendment, exactly how the Dems could engineer Biden’s political defenestration.

The biggest plot twist waiting in the wings where Joe is strutting and fretting his hour upon the stage is carried by no one named Biden, not even dear old son Hunter, but Madam Vice President,  person-of-color Kamala Harris.  Everyone knows that Harries could not win against Donald Trump (or even against Donald Duck). But no one I have seen has put forward a plausible plan to replace Harris in the unlikely event that Biden exits stage left.

Of course, the biggest plot twist of the last couple of weeks was the attempted assassination of Donald Trump last weekend at his rally in Butler, PA.

Thomas Matthew Crooks managed to get off six shots before being taken out by a sniper in Trump’s security detail. He killed one innocent rallygoer and seriously injured two others. The shot that mattered, the shot “heard round the world,” was the one that grazed Donald Trump’s right ear, delivering him the campaign’s historic photograph and changing the fundamental metabolism of American politics.

What plot twists followed?  There was Trump’s extraordinary speech at the Republican National Convention.

Other twists are unfolding before us.  One was articulated by the most intelligent and politically wily Democratic pollster, Doug Schoen. Writing in FoxNews about the former president’s speech, Schoen noted that Trump “may well have sealed the outcome of the 2024 election with a performance . . . that has largely been unmatched in recent American political history.”

The former president eschewed the polarization and division that has marked much of his rhetoric in the past. In his speech officially accepting the Republican Party’s nomination there were only a couple of references to the 2020 election. Trump was able to hit on key messages when speaking about topics like inflation, and especially immigration, in ways that were compelling and arguably responsive to the fundamental concerns of Americans.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way.  Eight months ago, many pundits had written off Trump.  But here he is, leading everywhere in the polls. Schoen is not, as he notes, a Trump partisan. On the contrary.  But he is a partisan of reality. And the reality is that Trump is on the cusp of a historic victory.  The election is just over three months away. One can imagine plot twists that result in a Trump loss. But probability—the “very guide of life,” as Bishop Butler put it—suggests that Schoen is right.  Donald Trump, despite the many plot twists he has been central to, is the overwhelming favorite to win the presidency in 2024.

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Notable Replies

  1. Some observations on a scene----------

    Friday, Politico published a long, inside baseball, article by Jeff Greenfield on the various options leading to an open Democrat Convention titled: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris or Someone Else? While fully listing all the ways the job could be accomplished, Greenfield–like someone who rushes past a haunted house, mentioned the probable schism of the Party should anyone other than Harris be chosen. I think the avoidance of the subject extremely humorous. No one really likes her. They know she has only the tiniest chances of winning. But everyone also knows they must bow to the intersectionality monster they’ve created. Visions of petards and bombasts come to mind.

    Nearly one third of Democrats believe the Trump assassination attempt was staged. In other news, the Flat Earth Society is celebrating a wave of new memberships. Speaking of the assassination attempt, citizen videos of the female FBI Agent who appears to be signaling to the would-be shooters (yes, plural) are now making the rounds—and I must say her actions are rather bizarre—especially her grabbing her phone to document the hit. Elsewhere there is fuzzy video of what looks to be the second shooter perched on the city water tower. And finally, video of an unknown agent behind the dais moving people out of the way just before the shots were fired. Even more bizarre, he ducks behind a large speaker in an attempt to hide from Trump’s security team as they are taking the future president from the stage and to the limo.

    Another quick mention----who knew to short Truth Social stock just before Saturday?

    I’m seeing more and more attacks on social media against the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. Those making the attacks are coordinated. They make nebulous dark sounding claims without quoting a single passage of the proposal as proof. Fear porn sells, and it sells well.
    If you’ve been living under a rock, the “Project” is easy to find at the Heritage website. It is over 900 pages long and could have been reduced to 400 pages or less if they simply eliminated the loaded adjectives and adverbs. Boiled down, it is really a call to return to Constitutional originalism-----something very frightening to the Left.

    Trump’s indoor rally in Grand Rapids was attended by thousands. JD Vance made his VP-to be first appearance. Vance, in his speech issued a challenge to Kamala Harris. But really, no one knows if it will be Vance facing off with her if she stays Veep, or if it will be Trump if she gets the Democrat nod in Chicago.

    And finally, I’ve noticed that no one really cares whether Joe goes or stays in the race other than the very few directly affected by his soon to be made decision. On discussion boards, the most vocal have made it very clear they are voting for a position, not a person. And to that, I feel pretty strongly the cake for November has been baked. No new ingredients will be added or taken away. The only decision to be made by the Democrats is to find someone willing enough to take one for the team as they look towards an inevitable loss in November.

  2. Sunday’s are one of my favorite days. For one, I often play golf–a sport for which I have unrequited love. Second, and most important of course, it is the day the Lord set aside for observance and appreciation of our Creator.

    But another reason is that its the day AG offers Mr. Kimball’s often thought provoking and occasionally penetrating analyses animating our republic–or what remains of it.

    However, today I must take issue with the esteemed Mr. Kimball. Though he is technically correct in that PDJT is the seemingly clear frontrunner for the Presidency, he ignores what too many also refuse to see; there is a reason–which is actually quite apparent–why for nearly eight years, the Democrat party, the Enemedia, the Deep State and all the ancillary functionaries of the left and Ruling Class, have systematically tried to destroy Donald Trump and prevent him to taking office (2016), then remove him from office (2016 - 2021) office, and now, once again, prevent PDJT from reclaiming the White House.

    That reason is simple, glaringly obvious, and horrifying: we no long live in a representative republic. The powers-that-be will only allow We the People the rulers they approve of, and any attempt to circumvent that demand will result in the removal of a defiant candidate, and punishment (J6 martyrs, Ashli Babbitt, Rosanne Boyd, grandmothers who peacefully protest abortion, Peter Navarre, Stephen Bannon et al) for those who defy their authority and edicts.

    That is our reality. PDJT may have been spared the assassin’s bullet, but I remain convinced he will not be allowed to reclaim the White House. It would therefore behoove We the People to begin processing that reality to its unmistakable conclusion.

  3. Max, I really think the shadow government players have ascertained they cannot cheat enough and so have resorted to Plan B. Since the first Plan B effort failed due to the Almighty’s intervention (and from their worship of a darker deity) I think the next attempt will be even more chocked with cleverness. I also believe it will fail too.

  4. Avatar for task task says:

    Sometimes even the best laid plans of mice and men don’t work out for even the most evil and ruthless. Those who control the levers of power, they helped broker and establish, in myriad anti-constitutional ways, overreached and they can read the tea leafs just as we can.

    Don’t you love it when your opponent sees he has several pieces on the chess board but knows his evasive tactics will only prolong the final checkmate event? It is at times such as these that the loser, inflamed by their inescapability is likely to either accidentally find an excuse to not finish the game or, in a rage, throws the whole chess board onto the floor. That is where we are. There is one other option. The Republicans, who are deeply invested in selfish anti-patriotic activities, might deliberately help snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It is why I wish to know every detail associated with the recent assassination attempt such as who might have hand loaded the cartridges. Every bullet should be retrieved and the rifling markings compared. When D. Trump plays golf a repeat of an Alec Baldwin event, or an improbable accident (Scalia sleep apnea event), or anything else is not off limits.

    As you imply the stakes are enormous so they are willing to take any blame to achieve their objective. After all what are we going to do about it afterwards? They will deal with that anyway they can and the people will just have to suck it up. The bottom line is that Trump must be stopped and there is no cost, no price to pay, that is too high. If Trump survives then I will become a believer in divine providence and begin going to Church on Sunday mornings just as you do.

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