The PRC Is a Greater Threat than Russia, Time for NATO to Act Like It

Hope springs eternal, and so in that spirit, NATO’s summit in Washington, D.C., was notable for what was conveyed about the threat to the alliance from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). NATO’s Washington, D.C., Summit communique calls the PRC a decisive enabler of Russia’s war against Ukraine. In addition, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the Russian defense industrial base was being fueled by the PRC. Swedish foreign minister Tobias Billström noted that NATO will have to reorient some of its assets to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) because of the threat it poses to the United States.

Good words, to be sure, even if they are points that might have been recognized from the outset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago. Despite this past failure to recognize the evidence of the PRC’s military support for Putin’s slaughter of Ukrainians, with this summit, there is now at least a shred of hope that this acknowledgment by NATO will be translated into tangible action to confront the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). But NATO’s actions reveal it does not yet fully comprehend the immediacy and scope of the PRC threat, as their focus remains on Russia and its horrific attack against Ukraine. This is evidenced by the response of the U.S. and NATO to the invasion. This has included Western opprobrium, diplomatic and economic sanctions, military aid, intelligence sharing, and quite likely a significant covert presence directly supporting and advising the Ukrainian military and intelligence community.

That is the priority of the Biden administration and NATO—but now, what about the PRC? If the PRC is making the war in Ukraine possible, then equal measures should be employed against it, as it is the source of sustaining the conflict. Putin is Xi Jinping’s myrmidon and will remain under Xi’s influence so long as Putin requires Xi’s support to sustain the war. That will be as long as the war lasts. So, now with this acknowledgement of PRC military support for the Russian war in Ukraine, there can be no excuse for not doing to the PRC what has been done to Russia. That means diplomatic sanctions, broad economic sanctions against PRC firms and CCP leaders, international stigmatization and isolation, and military countermeasures. It means the full might of diplomatic and economic measures need to be employed, including currency, investment, trade restrictions and boycotts of PRC goods. Likewise, PRC access to American farmland, technology and our universities must be dramatically curtailed. In essence, we have now come to the end of the Engagement School of American foreign policy towards the PRC.

Fundamentally, it also requires ending the policies of engagement that European states continue to maintain with the PRC. This includes NATO members and key U.S. allies like the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, who are aiding the PRC through their economic and diplomatic support for the PRC, while the PRC aids Russia in its war against Ukraine and while the PRC aggresses against U.S. treaty allies in the Indo-Pacific.

Right now, Xi is putting the screws to U.S. allies, including most urgently in the Philippines, and to key partners like Taiwan. The PRC’s coercive actions against Manila at Second Thomas Shoal are especially alarming today because of Beijing’s escalation. We have noted how the PRC’s Coast Guard and Navy are directly interfering with the resupply of the BRP Sierra Madre, the vessel permanently beached on the shoal to protect Manila’s sovereignty. Beijing is executing a maritime sovereignty campaign to seize Filipino territory through an orchestrated process of incremental coercive steps that are increasingly violent and could very well lead to an armed conflict. The PRC may decide very soon, before the November 5^th U.S. presidential election or before January 20^th, 2025, when the president is inaugurated, to employ force to destroy the Sierra Madre and seize the Shoal. This might be done at the same time the PRC aggresses elsewhere against the Philippines and perhaps simultaneously against Taiwan.

Given the Biden administration’s return to neo-Engagement, Beijing’s attempts to seize Second Thomas Shoal may very well be successful. But if they are to be defeated, it will be because of the brave stand by the Filipino military, which resisted while the Biden administration and NATO allies watched and did nothing. If the Philippines are defeated and Second Thomas Shoal is seized by the PRC, the implications of such a defeat to a U.S. Treaty ally in the face of the PRC’s aggression will not only shock the region but also strike at the core of NATO. If the U.S. was willing to sell out the Philippines, might it also do so to Poland, Romania, Finland, and the Baltic States? These are very real concerns and demonstrate that NATO really has a stake in what happens in the Philippines. The threat that the U.S. and NATO face is not regional; it is global and caused by the PRC’s hyper-aggression. This revelation of PRC military aid to Russia should be the straw that breaks the proverbial “camel’s back,” and thereby NATO must come to the realization that the PRC is an existential threat to their safety, as should the U.S.

Those Europeans in NATO who are reluctant to address the PRC threat need to learn that what happens out of area does not stay out of area. The PRC’s prodigious economic and military growth and political influence occurred out of area, but it is not staying out of area. In a powerful signal, the PRC’s 11-day military exercise in Belarus, termed “Eagle Assault 2024,” which coincides with the NATO Summit, shows that the PRC has the ability to project military power to NATO’s doorstep. In fact, it is centered on Brest, which is close to Belarus’ border with Ukraine and only some 5 kilometers from Belarus’ border with Poland. This exercise reveals that the PRC’s hegemonic ambitions and hyper-aggression must be confronted by the U.S. and all of its allies, from Ottawa to Manila. Whether a U.S. ally is in NATO or is not, the PRC threat is the dominant one today. It is time that all members of NATO join the fight against the PRC, as it is necessary for other non-NATO U.S. allies to as well.

America faces a multiple-front war scenario, aiding Ukraine with NATO allies while facing the PRC’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific. If NATO states want help with Ukraine, then they should provide support to the U.S. and to the Philippines to resist the PRC. It is one fight. It is time NATO acted like it.

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James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer are the authors of Embracing Communist China:  America’s Greatest Strategic Failure.