Post-NY Verdict: Likely Voters Move Toward Trump
In a poll of 600 likely voters in Arizona, run by North Star Opinion Research, Trump leads by double digits, up 10 points in a multi-candidate field. The top three candidates are Trump at 42%, Biden at 32%, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. at 13%.
Trump also leads a two-man race by 6-point margin, 48-42%, with 11% undecided.
Compared to a March survey by the same firm, Trump’s lead has expanded:
March June
Head-to-head: Trump +4% Trump +6%
Multi-Candidate: Trump +4% Trump +10%
On the issues, Trump’s lead flows mostly from economic concerns of Arizonans. By an 18-point margin, they report they were better off under Trump, 54-36%. More than two-thirds of Arizonans, 69%, convey that Biden is not doing enough on inflation.
Regarding Bidenomics, 74% say it either does not work for anyone or that it only works for the wealthy. 83% say that price increases since Biden took office have affected them personally.
The double-digit lead for Trump is largely fueled by his lead among two historically Democratic groups: he leads both Hispanics and young voters aged 18-34 in the multi-candidate field.
On the US Senate race, the poll shows Ruben Gallego with a narrow 1-point lead, with a breakdown of 39% for Gallego, 38% for Kari Lake, and 9% for Green Party candidate Eduardo Quintana.
The survey was conducted June 17-20, after the announcement of the New York verdict against Trump.
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