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Stagflation: American Job Growth Predicted to Slow Down in 2024

Predictions by a research group suggest that job growth will slow significantly while inflation remains high in the second half of 2024, leading to stagflation.

As reported by the Daily Caller, the Conference Board Employment Trends Index declined to 111.25 in April, down from 112.16 in March; as the index trends down, so too, most likely, will job growth. The Conference Board’s report will only add to concerns about a weak economy, including low growth, high unemployment, and high inflation, which is known as “stagflation.”

“The ETI fell in April, a sign that employment growth could stall in the second half of 2024,” said Will Baltrus, associate economist at The Conference Board. “The ETI has been on a downward trajectory since its peak in March 2022, and this month signals a continuation of that trend. However, the Index remains historically elevated and is still above its pre-pandemic level, which suggests aggregate job losses are less likely than a slowdown in employment growth.”

Several factors that play into the report include negative changes in the number of respondents who said that jobs are “hard to get,” as well as the ratio of involuntary part-time workers to all part-time workers, and the number of hires in temporary positions. The report notes that the primary driver of rising unemployment in the near future will be a reduced consumer demand for goods and services.

In April, only about 175,000 jobs were added, significantly below economists’ predictions of 243,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. Meanwhile, gross domestic product (GDP) clocked in at just 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, with inflation remaining at 3.5% year-over-year in March.

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About Eric Lendrum

Eric Lendrum graduated from the University of California, Santa Barbara, where he was the Secretary of the College Republicans and the founding chairman of the school’s Young Americans for Freedom chapter. He has interned for Young America’s Foundation, the Heritage Foundation, and the White House, and has worked for numerous campaigns including the 2018 re-election of Congressman Devin Nunes (CA-22). He is currently a co-host of The Right Take podcast.

Photo: PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - OCTOBER 13: U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at Tioga Marine Terminal on October 13, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Biden discussed how his Bidenomics agenda is creating good-paying union jobs, investing in infrastructure, accelerating the transition to a clean energy future, and combatting the climate crisis.(Photo by Mark Makela/Getty Images)