Current polling indicates that Donald Trump is likely to become the Republican nominee for the third time. But he does not appear to have a realistic path to the White House.
To win the presidency, Trump will need to convince Americans who are not fervently in his camp, as well as independents and other non Republicans to vote for him. That is no easy task for an individual who has managed to alienate virtually everyone who is not part of the MAGA faithful.
If Trump is the Republican nominee again in 2024, he will likely win few Democrat voters. Even independents fed up with Joe Biden’s failures and utter incompetence are unlikely to choose Trump in the general election.
Despite Trump’s many successes while in the White House, voters seem to have grown tired of his self-serving, narcissistic character, and petulant behavior. Making matters worse, unlike Democratic voters, Republicans are less likely to vote for the GOP nominee, especially one as polarizing as Trump.
And while many voters believe that Trump was cheated out of a second term, it does the Republican Party no favors to nominate him, only to have him lose to a feeble and often confused man, or to whichever radical leftist the Democrats decide to throw out there.
A primary victory followed by what is likely to be an inevitable loss in the general election will not only be a huge blow to the former president, it will also be a blow to the future of America.
What is the goal of a political battle?
Is it to win knowing that the battle is the wrong one to win and will lead to losing the war? Where is the evidence that Trump can win the general election? Several polls—for whatever they’re worth—indicate that if the election were held today, Biden would still defeat Trump in several battleground states, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would defeat Biden in those same polls.
If past precedent is any indication, DeSantis has a far greater shot of picking up Democratic and independent voters in a general election than Trump. Consider that in the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, DeSantis won independent voters by at least 20 percent—a 30-point bump in ballot share from his narrow victory in 2018. He won Hispanic voters by at least 14 percent—a 22-point increase in ballot share from 2018 and the highest share of the nonwhite vote for a Republican in Florida history. And perhaps most impressively, DeSantis won female voters by at least 7 percent—a 16-point increase in ballot share from 2018.
DeSantis also flipped seven counties from blue to red, including Miami-Dade, where the governor’s 11.3-point margin of victory was the highest for any Republican candidate for governor.
Who’s to say DeSantis couldn’t do what he did in Florida, on a national level?
Are independents—let alone disenchanted Democrats—clamoring for a second Trump term? How well did Trump’s Senate and congressional candidates do in November compared to DeSantis’ historic, nearly 20-point landslide victory? How many prominent members of Trump’s administration are even lukewarm supporters? One hundred-fifty former Trump officials have already endorsed DeSantis.
Trump accomplished many good things as president, at least several that other Republican presidents probably would not have accomplished. He and his team nominated excellent Supreme Court justices, helped to establish the Abraham Accords, removed barriers to vaccine development that hastened the delivery of admittedly controversial vaccines (autocratic enforcement of mandates was not his fault), cut taxes and regulations, focused on improving American energy production capabilities, and reduced illegal immigration, etc.
The current president has already reversed or prevented advancement of these accomplishments. Considering, however, that Trump has already broken the barriers that facilitated the above listed accomplishments, it is likely that the next Republican president, if not Trump, will return most of his successful policies, including finishing the wall and initiating new programs that the country needs.
In any event, Trump’s likely loss in the general election will lead to further and possibly irreversible damage. How much time does the country have to end the state controlled transition away from fossil fuels? A government that could not implement the three major steps of the Afghanistan withdrawal has no chance at all of implementing the hundreds of thousands of steps required to eliminate fossil fuels in 20 to 30 years, but it sure will be able to generate massive chaos, poverty, and very likely famine.
Additionally, Trump seems to be moving left on abortion and entitlement reform, so there is no guarantee that if elected he will continue some of his prior conservative policies.
Not voting for Trump in the primary will not only save our republic, but it will also help Trump.
Following a Republican presidential victory, likely accompanied by the election of a Republican Senate and House, it will be more likely that Congress will be able to conduct effective hearings into the way that the current chief executive and Congress unlawfully investigated Trump, hunting for crimes and when not finding them, inventing them.
On the other hand, if the Democrats reclaim all of Congress and retain the presidency, the attacks on Trump will likely continue and he will never be vindicated. In addition, their success in destroying him and his associates will further encourage them to use the same tactics on other Republicans.