An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted for Center for American Greatness, October 30th in Iowa shows Donald Trump has taken a 2-point lead over Joe Biden. It also shows that incumbent Senator Joni Ernst has surged to a 6-point lead. The survey of registered, likely voters was conducted by a combination of IVR and live cell phone interviews. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. The results:
Trump: 48 percent
Biden: 46 percent
Jo Jorgensen: .5 percent
No Opinion/Undecided: 6 percent
The results for U.S. Senate:
Ernst: 51%
Greenfield: 45%
Stewart: 1%
Herzog: 1%
Undecided: 2%
InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery has polled Iowa presidential races for twenty years. His analysis:
“ Trump’s numbers among younger voters remain stronger than expected. That is good news for him as he continues to lag among voters age 65 or older in Iowa. Trump leads among white voters and men. Although the survey shows Trump with very strong support from African Americans, that number has little meaning as the sample size is far too small to be statistically meaningful and Iowa’s percent of African American voters is relatively low. However, this contest does appear to be turning conventional wisdom on its head with Trump performing better with younger voters than ever anticipated and older voters going unexpectedly to Biden.
Ernst was trailing in our last survey and was underperforming when compared to Trump. That is clearly not the case now. Ernst has closed the gap with female voters and moved up with senior voters, with a lead among that demographic of well over twenty points. This accounts for her numbers which have surged past her opponent and Trump’s in the state. This is one of the biggest turnarounds in a U.S. Senate race that I have seen in my years in the business of opinion research.”
The poll results can be found here