Donald Trump grabbed a two-point lead in Pennsylvania according to a new poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage for the Center for American Greatness. The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted October 30-31 by mixed interactive voice response and live cell phone interviews. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 points.
This result comes the day after President Trump held four rallies in the state including one with an estimated 58,000 people or nearly one-half of one percent of the entire state of Pennsylvania.
Here are the topline results:
Trump: 49%
Biden: 47%
Jorgensen: 1%
Undecided: 3%
Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage explains:
As in several of our other battleground surveys, Trump is accelerating his lead with voters between the ages of 18-44 where he leads by 17 points. This age group, in prior surveys of the state, opposes future Covid-19 related shutdowns by the largest margin. Among older voters (65 and over) Biden leads by 10 points. This group is most supportive of future Covid related shutdowns. As in other polls, Trump is now receiving over twenty percent of the African American vote. An important note: Our surveys are based on self-identification of a party. Many registered Democrats in Pennsylvania self-identify as independents. That is reflected in an 18 point lead by Biden among independents in the survey. This race will be razor thin and the numbers are within the margin of error. With undecided at such a low number, turnout will determine the winner.
The full results are here.