Trump Takes The Lead In Pennsylvania; +3 Per New Poll

A poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage for the Center for American Greatness of 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania shows Donald Trump now leading in the state. The poll was conducted the evening of October 25 by both IVR and live cell phone interviews. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent and is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The results:


Donald Trump: 48.4%

Joe Biden: 45.5 %

Jo Jorgensen: 3 %

Undecided: 3 %

The same poll had Biden in the lead less than two weeks ago. Why? InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery explained why things have moved in Trump’s favor:

“These results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggest that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.”


Towery adds “Trump also continues to hold about 14% of the African American vote in this survey. In twenty years of polling, and as one who has polled Pennsylvania many times, I have never seen a Republican candidate consistently hold these type of numbers among black voters this close to an election. And this appears to be a developing trend in numerous states.”


Matt Towery accurately predicted a national victory for Donald Trump for major owned and operated Fox affiliates on air the evening before the 2016 presidential election. He has polled presidential races across the nation for twenty years. Specifically he has polled Pennsylvania for numerous news organizations, including the 2008 contest between Barack Obama and John McCain for Politico where his surveys showed an Obama victory. He retired from his nationally syndicated column (Creators) in 2016 and as CEO of InsiderAdvantage but returned to provide polling of the Trump-Biden contest this year.


Poll details are here and a discussion with Matt Towery of this year’s polls can be heard here.

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