Trump Closes Gap In Iowa; Race Now Tied

An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted for Center for American Greatness, October 18-19 in Iowa shows Donald Trump and Joe Biden tied with 45 percent of the vote each. The survey of registered likely voters was conducted by a combination of IVR and live cell phone interviews. It is weighted for age, race, sex, and political affiliation. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. The results:

Trump: 45 percent

Biden: 45 percent

Jo Jorgensen: 2 percent

No Opinion/Undecided: 8 percent

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery has polled Iowa presidential races for twenty years. His analysis:

President Trump and Joe Biden are literally tied in Iowa with less than two weeks to go. Prior Iowa polling by other firms showed Trump trailing Biden by several points. Clearly Trump is making up ground in the state. His strength continues to be among voters between the ages of 44-64, where he enjoys a 14 point lead. And surprisingly he trails among younger voters by only 8 points. The weakness for Trump is among voters age 65 and over where he trails Biden by nearly 20 points. When respondents are asked whether they would favor additional lockdowns to deal with any future surges of Covid-19, only this oldest age bracket favors such actions. Clearly the issue of how Covid is dealt with remains a critical issue for older voters in Iowa.

In the race for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Joni Ernst appears to be trailing Trump’s performance in the state. She trails her Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield by five points. The results:

Greenfield: 48 percent

Ernst: 43 percent

Stewart: 5 percent

Herzog: 0 percent

No Opinion/Undecided: 4 percent

Of the Iowa results, Towery said: “Ernst is basically tied with her Democratic challenger among younger age groups and is losing senior voters by nearly twenty points. And while Trump has a significant lead among male voters in Iowa, Ernst only enjoys a five-point lead among men. Ernst must cling to Trump and hope to ride his momentum if she is to have a shot at holding on to her seat.”

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