Why Doesn’t It Feel Like Biden is Winning?

On Tuesday November 8, 2016 at 7:00 pm, I entered an Uber to travel to a Chicago-area stand-up comedy club in search of escape from the inevitable. The New York Times set Clinton’s percentage chance at victory in the high-90s. The driver had his radio tuned to a panel of NPR election experts assembled to announce the results as they came in. Most of the panel members chirped enthusiastically about Clinton’s inevitable victory. But one Clinton supporter spoke in hushed tones regarding the results from a particular county in Florida. I could hear it in his voice. My news sources still showed a likely Clinton victory. But this expert’s voice told the truth: The polls were wrong.

As we approach the next election, the polls again show an insurmountably persistent Trump deficit in the popular vote and even in key battleground states. Poll aggregator Nate Silver estimates Trump’s approval to be below Obama, Clinton, and Reagan at similar points in their presidencies. Silver fixes the chance of a Biden victory at 81 percent as of his writing on October 5th. The betting markets show a recent collapse in confidence that Trump will be reelected. 

So why doesn’t it feel like Biden is winning?

If we had no polls, betting markets, or professional pontificators, what outcome would we predict from the things that we can observe with our own eyes and ears? Let’s run through a few non-scientific intangibles that don’t seem to line-up with the polling.

The media is actively sheltering Biden. If a Biden victory were indeed inevitable, would we see such vigorous coordination by the media to shelter and prop up Biden? As I recently noted, even a casual observer could see the media seemed to be tipping-off Biden on the already-softball questions it intended to ask. It is also clear that the moderator at the first debate frequently interfered to protect Biden from questions about his son’s corruption, potential Biden Supreme Court nominees, Biden’s position on phasing out private insurance, Biden’s specific criticism of Trump’s COVID-19 policies, and the reasons for Biden’s law enforcement support deficit. 

In addition, it’s become patently obvious that the Biden campaign and the media intended a strategy of releasing a coordinated scandal hit on Trump every two to three days until election day. For example, the Bob Woodward piece, the Atlantic hit piece, the New York Times hit piece on Trump’s taxes, and the new coordinated mischaracterization of Trump’s “failure” to condemn white supremacists, since a mere 99 times of denouncing them simply doesn’t suffice and he is required to do it for the 100th time as called upon by Chris Wallace.

Voters don’t vote to ban their new guns. According to the Left-leaning Brooking’s institute, “In just the first six months of 2020, approximately 19 million firearms have been sold, representing more than one firearm for every 20 Americans.” But with roughly 150 million registered to vote, that’s a huge block of potential voters. Brookings made this observation before the awful rioting in Kenosha, Wisconsin and Louisville, Kentucky. There are no reliable statistics for the proportion of those weapons that might be subject to a future Biden-sponsored gun-ban. But acute shortages of ammunition for AR-15s point to a large group of voters who might feel their guns will be targeted by a Biden Administration. It seems counter-intuitive that gun owners would vote for a candidate promising to ban those same weapons. 

What about Biden’s incompetent messaging? Biden and his campaign just don’t act like they think they’re winning. First his imitative theme, “Build Back Better,” despite the awkward alliteration, is essentially identical to “Make America Great Again.” He’s played a prevent-defense style campaign by avoiding issues and public appearances. Biden prefers to attack Trump rather than articulating policy intentions. 

After months of campaigning by Zoom, he suddenly emerged to conduct a smattering of lightly-attended functions. Yet, while polls tell us that Biden has never stopped beating Trump, the campaign abruptly lurched from raising money to bail out rioters to an unconvincing “law and order” stance. Then the Biden campaign made another radical lurch from encouraging their voters to mail in ballots to voting in person. Most recently, the Biden campaign promised to pull negative ads attacking the COVID-19-positive president but failed to do so. This tells me that the Biden campaign isn’t following advice from good political consultants and could easily be wrong-footed again.  

The campaign is full of toxic political correctness. In the face of the George Floyd death, the Left seemed to have stormed all of America all at once with new speech rules. Simply failing to enthusiastically cheer the violent neo-Marxist/Maoist groups burning and looting our cities will get you fired by our Chinese-canoodling corporate overlords. Many Trump votes were cast as a protest to the suffocating political-correctness atmosphere of 2016. Since that atmosphere has become even more suffocating, those protest votes may grow. Even as the media pushes the “Trump is a white supremacist” narrative, minorities have begun to peel away from the Democrats in increasing numbers. 

History is not on Biden’s side. It’s not a small thing that historical precedent strongly suggests Trump will be re-elected. Think of the last three times a challenger upset an incumbent: Bill Clinton over George W. Bush, Reagan over Carter, and Carter over Ford. Does Joe Biden have the umph of a Clinton or a Reagan? Remember, a younger, better-looking Biden lost to Michael Dukakis, who lost to George H.W. Bush. Taking that one step further, Bush lost to a charismatic Clinton. But all of that Arkansas charm wasn’t enough to prevent his wife from losing to Trump.  

The intensity of Trump’s campaign is unstoppable. To quote one phrase making the rounds, Trump supporters will fight murder hornets, COVID-19, and rioters to vote in person. Biden supporters hate Trump. But Biden himself does not inspire hope or confidence the way an Obama or Bill Clinton did. Trump frequently boasts of the enthusiasm of his followers, signs of which one can easily see in rally attendance and the ubiquity of MAGA hats and yard signs. The MAGA rally even followed the president to Walter Reed when he could no longer come to the rallies.

There is a great upheaval of our population underway. Many have commented on the mass exodus happening across the country as the middle class flees the urban areas. Some of this is brought on by the telework revolution that makes living near the office an expensive luxury. But a significant number of Americans are fleeing high crime, chaos, and taxes that plague the Democrat-run cities. Some will take their Democrat-voting habits with them, but many more will either fail to vote during the transition or will vote against the party that drove them from their city homes. 

President Trump has made fools out of thousands of prophets predicting his doom. While the public consumes a steady diet of polls commissioned by the same news organizations that so obviously want to wish a Trump defeat into reality, we know that the campaigns conduct their own secret polling. Thus, we should take note when the actions of the campaigns don’t match the numbers in the polls.

About Adam Mill

Adam Mill is a pen name. He works in Kansas City, Missouri as an attorney specializing in labor and employment and public administration law. He graduated from the University of Kansas and has been admitted to practice in Kansas and Missouri. Mill has contributed to The Federalist, American Greatness, and The Daily Caller.

Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

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50 responses to “Why Doesn’t It Feel Like Biden is Winning?

  • Mr. Mill, spot on. The enthusiasm for President Trump is off the charts. Even the Biden voters I know, and they are very few, are only voting against Trump, not for Biden.
    Vote in person and vote straight Republican ticket. The country is at stake.

    • Yes, they figured out a way to achieve an “accurate sampling” poll result that has the proper percentage of registered Democrats and Republicans yet favors Biden.

      By over-sampling big city regions rather than smaller city and rural areas, they are over-sampling the hardcore Democrat base to achieve the proper Democrat percentage that reviewers of polls look for. They then sample suburban areas of those largest cities to get their proper proportion of Republicans and Independents to counter claims they were under-sampled. However, those likely voters work in the big cities and are more heavily influenced by their Democrat coworkers.

      They intentionally avoid those outside of the biggest cities and their suburbs, where many Democrats and independents are moving towards Trump, and virtually all of those Republicans are solidly behind him.

      • Democrat Party polling has proven itself to be only one aspect of the Democrat Party campaign process. That process is systematic, oppressive, omnipresent propaganda that is geared to deceive the gullible, and break the will, heart and mind of the not so gullible.

        But the “feel” of this election season is just a bit different than 2016. The Democrat Party has spent the last 4 years committing widespread violence. From the Russian hoax to impeachment to the phony pandemic crisis and lock down, to the Democrat Party burning down the homes, businesses and cities of its own voter base, Bolshevik violence has been the Democrat Party’s order of the day.

        And I think most of America is sick and tired of it.

        President Trump’s brawling mauling of Chris Wallace and Joe Biden and his resounding, lightening quick victory over his COVID-19 infection are what the spirit of America feels like going into the 2020 election. I believe this spirit of America will gather around its human form, Donald Trump, with the force of a category 5 hurricane.

        Inside every American is a Donald Trump just waiting to get out. And this November 2020, 10’s of millions of Americans will unleash their spirit by getting out to vote.

    • Gonzo has it!!! There it is…. The polls will get closer to reality as the election nears, al least the ones that care about credibility!!! The others will still be trying to convince the fair weather Republican voter that it’s a waste of time to go vote, defeat is inevitable

  • I have friends and family members that no doubt will be voting for Biden. They will vote for him because they have always voted straight D and for no other reason. These are the voters that do not follow the news, no clue on policies least not the economy and believe everything they hear. Guess what – they are all women, surprise.

    There will always be uninformed voters, but there are far more voters that have been affected by Democrats than my small circle. The only question now and is always the main factor, how much can Dems cheat. Let’s hope everyone votes in person!

  • Fans-my email is millstreetgazette (at) gmail.com. I love hearing from you-story ideas or feedback.

    • Adam that was a very insightful article and I believe you have hit on the feeling many of us have. An article about why the major networks produce these biased polls and how they do it would be very interesting.

    • “Adam” –
      Just my 2 cents:
      If you value the anonymity of your pen name and wish to maintain your secret identity, I would respectfully submit that you may not want to include such personally-identifying info in your end-of-article bio. It would be all too easy for someone with ill intent to research “Kansas City, MO attorneys who specialize in labor and employment and public administration law and earned their JD at UK”, determine who you are, and out/dox you.

      Great article. I hope the exposure it got on Rush’s recent show brings you more new readers/fans in addition to myself.

  • Correction. HW Bush lost due to Perot.
    Trump did it the right way. Instead of running third party like Perot, Trump took over one of the political parties. That’s the way you get rid of these basterds….

  • It’s a wonder how pollsters and the media try so hard to convince everyone what can be seen by their own eyes. My best argument against regressives is to expose them to the video clip of SCJ Clarence Thomas’s historical comment of “high tech lynching” and “rather than being hung from a tree”, and then point out the Senator who ramrodded that committee…Joe Biden. Most have never seen it because they are young. Rarely a comment of defense after that except from the rabid professor types.

  • The pollsters are trying to help Biden by dishonestly rigging the polls to discourage Republicans from voting and swaying mushy independents to believe that Trump must be bad because most people are against him.
    A revealing polling question that unexpectedly favors Trump winning: Who do you think your neighbor will vote for? Another: Who do you think is most likely to win?

  • The phrase “actions speak louder than words” comes to mind, and maybe we should amend slightly to say “actions speak louder than polls”. The actions by the Biden campaign and the Democrats in general betray them as knowing they are losing, and knowing the polls are wrong.

    It’s abundantly clear that Trump’s opponents have learned nothing from their defeat in 2016, as evidenced by their actions in virtually every other area. Why would be believe they learned their lesson with regard to polls?

  • They are having to skew the polls more heavily Democrat to keep up the myth Biden is leading. Again, something they wouldn’t have to do if he were actually leading

  • Hmmm, let’s see now – the number one true white supremacist in America, Richard Spencer, has said he’s voting a straight Democratic ticket. That should tell you something. However, “white supremacisy” is a belief or idea of which speech is an expression. Unless something has changed I don’t know about. we still have freedom of speech and expression in this country. Condemning distasteful expression is un-American.

    • Sure he is. Because he, like the rest of the Democrats, believe that a person is defined by the color of their skin, that black people should be separate from others and that one race is superior. BLM and the KKK agree on almost everything with just a few minor differences.

    • Condemning distasteful expression in un-American. This is b.s. It’s just another facet of “free speech”

  • The reason it seems that way to you Mr. Mill is that you are a biased, uninformed fool. Trump will be trounced. Thank the gods. We are tired of the racism, incompetence and corruption of this crime family regime.

    • Your impolite response is exactly the topic of many of the comments in this thread. You make an arrogant assessment without substance as well as an insult thrown in simply because someone dares to disagree with you. Your set in stone prediction is certainly not based on any correctly fulfilled past predictions. What kinda fool does that? The racism incompetence and corruption are a product of the left stemming from their seething foam at the mouth hatred for YOUR President…because he stopped you dead in your tracks from turning America into Amerika.

    • Huh. If you’re tired of racism, incompetence, and corruption, why in the world would you EVER vote for Joe Biden?

  • I have a question for Adam Mill: why are you so convinced the polls THIS YEAR must be uniquely wrong?

    Historically, the general election polls have been fairly accurate if you look at the polling average. Sometimes there has been a slight bias / error in favor of the Republican nominee (as happened in 2012), and sometimes in favor of the Democrat (as in 2016). Four years ago, the final polls predicted Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by 3% when she in fact won by 2.1%. The much maligned state polls also by and large correctly predicted the outcome although the margin was sometimes off. Hence the final RealClearPolitics predicted was Clinton would win 272 electoral votes vs. 266 for Trump. A razor thin margin, in other words! Trump ended up losing Nevada (where he was the narrow favorite on election night) but Clinton unexpected lost Michigan, Wisconsin (where there had been very few polls during the last week) as well as Pennsylvania and along with it, the election. But the remaining 47 state races ended up as expected.

    Since the polls pretty much nailed the 2018 mid-terms, what makes you think Biden’s current 9 point (avg.) lead in the national polls is a complete hoax and a complete mirage? After all, the pollsters include several right wing outfits such as FoxNews, the Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen Reports and others. Why do you assume also these pollsters are dead wrong and/or outright lying? I remember conservatives were saying the same thing in 2012 when they could not believe Mitt Romney was actually losing to Obama. There was Dean ‘Unskewed Polls’ Chambers who predicted Romney would win in a landslide ( https://www.businessinsider.com/unskewed-pollster-dean-chambers-nate-silver-election-dick-morris-michael-barone-2012-11 )

    • “I have a question for Adam Mill: why are you so convinced the polls THIS YEAR must be uniquely wrong?”

      “Why Doesn’t It Feel Like Biden is Winning?”

      If you read the story under the above heading he explains “why”. Odd question…..

    • You’re referencing final polls, there is still a month to go. 2016 Early/mid Oct – Clinton +7.1 2012 Early/mid Oct- Romney +1.7
      I’m sure if you break it down further by state polling, it’ll be the same. Those are the ones that matter in the end.

    • It’s kind of amusing that you start off by wondering why the author doubts the polls and then proceed to later point out multiple polls that were wrong.

      As for the national polls and the 3% vs. 2.1%, two things. First, national polls are mostly useless in predicting a winner due to the electoral college. Second, understand that HRC’s popular vote victory was fueled by one state and one state only: California. It was the only state she won where she outdid Obama. If you were to reduce her tally in that state to a winning by just 1 vote, she loses the popular vote as well. Do that with any other state she won and she still wins it.

      And while you quote RCP’s final averages, you fail to actually consider what made up those averages. Was Donald Trump ahead in Nevada according to their average? Yes. Why? Because of 1 poll that showed him with a 6 point lead. That’s it. Wisconsin? There was plenty of polling done. 5 in the last week alone and all of the ones included in RCP’s average showed Clinton up by at least 6 points. 6 points! That’s a HUGE miss in polling terms. The final average was HRC +2.1. Only 3 polls in the entire history of their 2016 polling in that state showed Trump ahead and 1 of them was the very last one done, otherwise the final average would have been above 3% and outside the MoE.

      You say she “unexpectedly” lost those states. Yeah, she “unexpectedly” lost them because the expectation was that the polls were accurate!

    • I remember those “unskewed polls” – he was dead wrong. Something mysterious happened that year, Romney just disappeared for the last month of the campaign. However – this year is both different and confusing. Even the Fox polls contain heavy dem sampling. I do believe Rasmussen, and personally feel this race could go either way. But I agree with this article it doesn’t “feel” like Biden is winning. Personally, it doesn’t feel like Trump is winning either – although he looks like it!

    • You are missing the fact that the polls in the battleground states (where Hillary lost) are running ahead for Trump currently. You are also missing the fact that one sides polling is being both artificially (due to sampling, etc) and legitatemately suppressed (if you are a Trump supporter you are attacked and if you are a Biden supporter you are thought to be stupid at worst)?

      Real life example. I recently (within the last six months) complained to several of my Democratic representatives about their positions on issues. This is the first time I have ever done this. I was forced to provide a phone #. Like an idiot I gave them a real number. Prior to this I had NEVER been polled in 30+ years an adult. Now I am getting texted ALL the time asking my opinion. 99% of the questions are loaded or clearly being asked by a Dem leaning polling institution (I look all of them up before I block them). My personal experience is demonstrating that I have zero faith in polls. Harsh reality is why do we even need them? They are the tools of manipulation (either way). Who cares who is “ahead.” Make up your own mind.

    • I think a big part of why polls are suspect now versus before in my mind is no way in hell would I go public being a Trump supporter due to the potentially even violent backlash we face for our opinion. That includes my “woke” workplace. No yard signs here, no car decorations, but I’m very eager to cast my vote. I suspect I’m not alone. I’ve received a couple of poll calls and I hung up.

      The dems thoroughly control the message. Every dem attack gets full press. Earlier today I tried to google a list of failed attacks on Trump, and only left wing sites came up, so that made me concerned. People’s twitter and fb accounts get closed. I tried several different keywords for similar searches, yet found nothing. So it’s easy to feel alone in the wilderness when everything around us is orange man bad. Honestly, I’m even reluctant to post on here. It feels like WE are the resistance, the underground, or whatever, as we talk among our friends in hushed tones.

      There is no way to measure the number of people like me who are bullied to remain below the radar. Soon we will find out if the silent majority actually exists. Until then, we’ll just be subject to the enormous frustration of legitimate points being shouted out by cries of racism from edited quotes about Charlottesville. Damned effing right I’m voting R, but not one pollster knows this.

  • Get out of your bubble and then its clear. Trump lost the popular vote and all the states have moved more democrat since 2016 so he will lose the popular vote MASSIVELY. There are still millions of trump supporters just not even close to the majority. The issue with the polls is they are still modelling based on 2016 turnout and vote patterns which are irrelevant. Many of Bernies supporters didnt vote and same for Black men. There is no excitement for Biden and never has been. Democrats picked him because they thought him the safest bet to beat trump. Most would vote for a shoe box over trump so dont care about anything else. Likewise with trump supporters. If you are with him still there is nothing at all that will move you. There is nothing that Biden can do wrong that Trump hasn’t done worse so nothing will stick with independent voters.

  • If they get in no doubt will go full commie and everything they can to impose the one party state

  • The mood of the United States isn’t captured in the polling. The Democrats and Never Trumpers are animated solely by their hatred for the threat that the Trump Administration poses to the business as usual corruption that pervades the Federal Government. The Democratic Party support for rioting, looting, and arson in cities all across America is shocking to the Normals. The Crazies antics are not going to inspire the traditional Democratic Party base to go out and vote. Trump supporters will walk through fire to cast their ballots for the President. Biden voters will heed the advice of their political leaders and stay safely at home, cowering in their basements.

  • It doesn’t feel as if Biden is winning because he is not winning. Of course with all their voter gimmicks the Democrats may still steal it.

    • I am not convinced the polls are wrong. Indeed, I am fearful they are accurate. The reason I believe it is *possible* the polls are wrong is due to the omnipresent threat of violence by people on the left against those who speak out against them. The single biggest threat to our freedoms comes from the suppression of first amendment rights. And today it is only the left that is actively suppressing and controlling speech. The left is morphing the Democrat party into the party of Orwell, insisting we deny what we see with our own eyes. More than anything else, that is why the left must be defeated.

  • I would like to believe this article, but part of me does not. Not all polls are controlled by the democratic party. The IBD poll and the WSJ poll are both on the right. But they show Trump losing as well. I believe it was the IBD poll that four years ago showed Trump winning, but not this time.

    There is also the fact that I think more conservatives probably lie to pollsters now, or will not speak to them, as they consider them part of the the democratic establishment. This only confounds things.

    I will place bets on the stock market, but not on this election. I don’t have a clue where it will go

    I hope the author is right.

  • None of the three precedents, Clinton, Carter or Reagan apply.

    Clinton was running against effectively a fourth Reagan term and won because of Ross Perot. There is no strong third party challenger and Trump is running for a second/final term.

    Carter ran against Watergate (Ford has pardoned Nixon). Trump is not Nixon — in fact he’s less corrupt than Clinton.

    Carter was, at best, lackluster. Further, even if you want to compare Trump to Carter, Biden ain’t no Reagan.

    If Biden wins, its all about the changed American demographics…

  • The reason it does not feel like Biden is winning is because nobody believes the polls. In the 2016 election, there was practically no poll that showed Trump winning. Every poll gave Clinton around 80%+ odds of winning. If you study statistics and probability, you know the chances of Trump winning was practically nil if the polls were done correctly. The betting market (correctly) relied on the polls then except that the polls were flawed.

    Even though Biden is vastly outperforming Clinton this time, the betting market still gives Trump a 35% odds of winning reelection. That tells you nobody really knows at this point.

  • I consider myself an independent voter, and I would say this article is spot on. Observing Trump vs. Biden supporters, I have seen a couple of differences. First, both like Trump’s policies, but Biden supporters are not aware of where the policies come from. Secondly, Trump supporters speak guardedly about their support, as Anti-Trump (as opposed to Biden supporters) people are wildly irrational and relationships are threatened and ended, over support for Trump. Third, they are aware that Biden is “sun downing” but hate Trump so much that they rationalize by saying “well, he’s going to have good people around him”. What?! (Then just run Howdy Doody and donate the salary)

    Finally, Biden supporters are prime examples of “confirmation bias”, in that they are stay informed just enough to confirm their beliefs, but no further. Anything different is dismissed as fake news. I have family and friends that I consider to be highly intelligent that are dogged in their beliefs, and anything to the contrary is met with either a blank stare, or violent rejection. It’s a little scary.

  • Today, after President Trump completed his appearance on the Rush Limbaugh show…

    Rush discussed your article in detail on air: “Why doesn’t it feel like Biden is winning?”…..

    You can see & hear it at the last hour of his show at 24 minutes & 50 seconds until end of hour.

    It was AWESOME…thank you…Marilyn

  • My two cents: I live in a county in Georgia that is mostly Democrat. In fact, ALL of the elected officials here are Democrats. Most of the population here is black. Democrats always win here. There usually isn’t a republican in a lot of races here for local elected offices. But, I know many people here that LOVE President Trump. They respect him. They get him. They were worried when he got the Chinese flu. In 2016 I knew Trump had a chance of winning because I would hear young black men talk while I was out and about. One specific phrase I remember a young black male saying was “I want a president who is for all people”. What I got out of that comment was he didn’t think Obama was for all people. I think he and his friends felt Obama had not been for them either. I think Trump had appeal for some black voters back then who were not happy with the results of the Obama years. So even though Trump didn’t get a lot of black voters in 2016, I know even some black voters were not happy with Obama’s direction of the country and did not want to vote Democrat again. Some voted Trump and some stayed home. I think in 2020, President Trump will got a heck of a lot more minority votes because he has proven himself. Trump said what he was going to do and he has did that or tried to do that with every thing he has done. I don’t know if my county will vote straight red tickets, but I know a lot more will vote for Trump than last time and he might even win my county. I hope many will vote straight red tickets so my county can improve too, but like I said not many conservatives run for office here. Maybe Trump will change that. Trump is an awesome president and his love for America and its people has captured the hearts and minds of many. People want to get on the Trump train to greatness for our country and themselves. He has inspired many people. He has inspired young men to be entrepreneurs where I live. I honestly do not see any way that Biden could win. He is just a continuation of Obama and people voted against Obama in 2016. People who were unsure of Trump voted for him anyway because they were not happy with the Obama agenda and did not want Hillary to continue it. Now that Trump has proven himself as able to accomplish things for our country, even while being maligned by the media and Democrats and some Republicans, I don’t see how in the heck he could lose. Democrats would have to cheat in big numbers and in many ways to steal this election.

  • Remember
    You arenot getting Joe Biden you are getting far left socialist,Marxist policies that will destroy America.

  • My unprofessional poll as I drive around the nation shows President Trump with a lawn and field sign lead on Biden by at least 30 to 1. I drive between 2,500 and 3,500 miles per week, crossing as many as 5 states in a day. The sign lead is consistent. The instances of individuals or groups holding roadside Trump rallies are friendly and enthusiastic. I have yet to see one for Biden or anti Trump. I believe the people, not the biased media.

  • There’s a clear disconnect here. It doesn’t feel like Biden is winning when he holds events on the campaign trail and no one shows up. Meanwhile, Trump who is supposed to be the loser here, draws thousands of supporters wherever he goes.

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