Why Doesn’t It Feel Like Biden is Winning?

On Tuesday November 8, 2016 at 7:00 pm, I entered an Uber to travel to a Chicago-area stand-up comedy club in search of escape from the inevitable. The New York Times set Clinton’s percentage chance at victory in the high-90s. The driver had his radio tuned to a panel of NPR election experts assembled to announce the results as they came in. Most of the panel members chirped enthusiastically about Clinton’s inevitable victory. But one Clinton supporter spoke in hushed tones regarding the results from a particular county in Florida. I could hear it in his voice. My news sources still showed a likely Clinton victory. But this expert’s voice told the truth: The polls were wrong.

As we approach the next election, the polls again show an insurmountably persistent Trump deficit in the popular vote and even in key battleground states. Poll aggregator Nate Silver estimates Trump’s approval to be below Obama, Clinton, and Reagan at similar points in their presidencies. Silver fixes the chance of a Biden victory at 81 percent as of his writing on October 5th. The betting markets show a recent collapse in confidence that Trump will be reelected. 

So why doesn’t it feel like Biden is winning?

If we had no polls, betting markets, or professional pontificators, what outcome would we predict from the things that we can observe with our own eyes and ears? Let’s run through a few non-scientific intangibles that don’t seem to line-up with the polling.

The media is actively sheltering Biden. If a Biden victory were indeed inevitable, would we see such vigorous coordination by the media to shelter and prop up Biden? As I recently noted, even a casual observer could see the media seemed to be tipping-off Biden on the already-softball questions it intended to ask. It is also clear that the moderator at the first debate frequently interfered to protect Biden from questions about his son’s corruption, potential Biden Supreme Court nominees, Biden’s position on phasing out private insurance, Biden’s specific criticism of Trump’s COVID-19 policies, and the reasons for Biden’s law enforcement support deficit. 

In addition, it’s become patently obvious that the Biden campaign and the media intended a strategy of releasing a coordinated scandal hit on Trump every two to three days until election day. For example, the Bob Woodward piece, the Atlantic hit piece, the New York Times hit piece on Trump’s taxes, and the new coordinated mischaracterization of Trump’s “failure” to condemn white supremacists, since a mere 99 times of denouncing them simply doesn’t suffice and he is required to do it for the 100th time as called upon by Chris Wallace.

Voters don’t vote to ban their new guns. According to the Left-leaning Brooking’s institute, “In just the first six months of 2020, approximately 19 million firearms have been sold, representing more than one firearm for every 20 Americans.” But with roughly 150 million registered to vote, that’s a huge block of potential voters. Brookings made this observation before the awful rioting in Kenosha, Wisconsin and Louisville, Kentucky. There are no reliable statistics for the proportion of those weapons that might be subject to a future Biden-sponsored gun-ban. But acute shortages of ammunition for AR-15s point to a large group of voters who might feel their guns will be targeted by a Biden Administration. It seems counter-intuitive that gun owners would vote for a candidate promising to ban those same weapons. 

What about Biden’s incompetent messaging? Biden and his campaign just don’t act like they think they’re winning. First his imitative theme, “Build Back Better,” despite the awkward alliteration, is essentially identical to “Make America Great Again.” He’s played a prevent-defense style campaign by avoiding issues and public appearances. Biden prefers to attack Trump rather than articulating policy intentions. 

After months of campaigning by Zoom, he suddenly emerged to conduct a smattering of lightly-attended functions. Yet, while polls tell us that Biden has never stopped beating Trump, the campaign abruptly lurched from raising money to bail out rioters to an unconvincing “law and order” stance. Then the Biden campaign made another radical lurch from encouraging their voters to mail in ballots to voting in person. Most recently, the Biden campaign promised to pull negative ads attacking the COVID-19-positive president but failed to do so. This tells me that the Biden campaign isn’t following advice from good political consultants and could easily be wrong-footed again.  

The campaign is full of toxic political correctness. In the face of the George Floyd death, the Left seemed to have stormed all of America all at once with new speech rules. Simply failing to enthusiastically cheer the violent neo-Marxist/Maoist groups burning and looting our cities will get you fired by our Chinese-canoodling corporate overlords. Many Trump votes were cast as a protest to the suffocating political-correctness atmosphere of 2016. Since that atmosphere has become even more suffocating, those protest votes may grow. Even as the media pushes the “Trump is a white supremacist” narrative, minorities have begun to peel away from the Democrats in increasing numbers. 

History is not on Biden’s side. It’s not a small thing that historical precedent strongly suggests Trump will be re-elected. Think of the last three times a challenger upset an incumbent: Bill Clinton over George W. Bush, Reagan over Carter, and Carter over Ford. Does Joe Biden have the umph of a Clinton or a Reagan? Remember, a younger, better-looking Biden lost to Michael Dukakis, who lost to George H.W. Bush. Taking that one step further, Bush lost to a charismatic Clinton. But all of that Arkansas charm wasn’t enough to prevent his wife from losing to Trump.  

The intensity of Trump’s campaign is unstoppable. To quote one phrase making the rounds, Trump supporters will fight murder hornets, COVID-19, and rioters to vote in person. Biden supporters hate Trump. But Biden himself does not inspire hope or confidence the way an Obama or Bill Clinton did. Trump frequently boasts of the enthusiasm of his followers, signs of which one can easily see in rally attendance and the ubiquity of MAGA hats and yard signs. The MAGA rally even followed the president to Walter Reed when he could no longer come to the rallies.

There is a great upheaval of our population underway. Many have commented on the mass exodus happening across the country as the middle class flees the urban areas. Some of this is brought on by the telework revolution that makes living near the office an expensive luxury. But a significant number of Americans are fleeing high crime, chaos, and taxes that plague the Democrat-run cities. Some will take their Democrat-voting habits with them, but many more will either fail to vote during the transition or will vote against the party that drove them from their city homes. 

President Trump has made fools out of thousands of prophets predicting his doom. While the public consumes a steady diet of polls commissioned by the same news organizations that so obviously want to wish a Trump defeat into reality, we know that the campaigns conduct their own secret polling. Thus, we should take note when the actions of the campaigns don’t match the numbers in the polls.

About Adam Mill

Adam Mill is a pen name. He works in Kansas City, Missouri as an attorney specializing in labor and employment and public administration law. He graduated from the University of Kansas and has been admitted to practice in Kansas and Missouri. Mill has contributed to The Federalist, American Greatness, and The Daily Caller.

Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

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121 responses to “Why Doesn’t It Feel Like Biden is Winning?”

  1. The level of enthusiasm seen in the respective campaigns and especially by likely voters has to be an indication that Biden/Harris is in deep trouble. I don’t know what percentage of voters are “ride the wave” types but that bloc will simply have to vote for Trump because there appears to be no other option. As Adam Mill tells us, there is a serious disconnect between what pollsters are reporting and what we see with our own eyes; so serious that not only is a Trump loss very unlikely but he might be on course for a stupendous victory.

  2. Mr. Mill, spot on. The enthusiasm for President Trump is off the charts. Even the Biden voters I know, and they are very few, are only voting against Trump, not for Biden.
    Vote in person and vote straight Republican ticket. The country is at stake.

    • Sir, you are so correct. I only know a few people also that will be voting Biden and their reason is quite clear. They emphatically say, “anybody but Trump”. I think they would vote for the devil himself to beat the best president this country has had in many years.

    • I disagree on the “straight ticket” recommendation. Because voters omitted (or declined) researching the candidate, we got eight years of probably the most corrupt and insidious administration in the nation’s history – Obama. Voters need to look into the candidates’ history and vet each candidate individually. We’re not voting for a party, we are voting for our constitutional republic.

    • Makes me think of a “saying” that’s “out there”. “If you’re voting for Biden because You don’t like Trump, it’s like choosing to eat dog poop because you don’t like broccoli!

    • “Biden prefers to attack Trump rather than articulating policy intentions.” — this statement backs up your point and appears to be the media’s sole thrust as well. They can’t extoll the benefits of inflaming racism, looting, burning, higher taxes and ridiculous policy — hence, go after the “boogeyman” they created. “Orange man bad” is not a political platform worth voting for and they know it, but they can’t help themselves.

    • You brainwashed suckers live in a hate-filled bubble of self delusion.

      Normal, sane people are running from Trump and his psychotic ignorance and idiocy in waves.

      Put a fork in that fat, orange traitor – he is done! :)

    • Liberals have low self esteem and an annoying humility. Fear of a superstition. Don’t talk about it, it will jinx it.

    • Typical diseased, gunhugging, gutless Trumplicker, writing under a pseudonym. Why, P.O.S.? So you can continue to plan your far right, domestic terror attacks on election day and after Trump and the Repugs get annihilated? We’re gong to have a real Justice Department starting on January 20, 2021, scumbucket, and you’re going to be in prison for a long, long time. Chalk it up to Marxist/Maoist political correctness.

    • How else would you explain consistent, repetitive Democrat oversampling?

    • Yes, they figured out a way to achieve an “accurate sampling” poll result that has the proper percentage of registered Democrats and Republicans yet favors Biden.

      By over-sampling big city regions rather than smaller city and rural areas, they are over-sampling the hardcore Democrat base to achieve the proper Democrat percentage that reviewers of polls look for. They then sample suburban areas of those largest cities to get their proper proportion of Republicans and Independents to counter claims they were under-sampled. However, those likely voters work in the big cities and are more heavily influenced by their Democrat coworkers.

      They intentionally avoid those outside of the biggest cities and their suburbs, where many Democrats and independents are moving towards Trump, and virtually all of those Republicans are solidly behind him.

      • Democrat Party polling has proven itself to be only one aspect of the Democrat Party campaign process. That process is systematic, oppressive, omnipresent propaganda that is geared to deceive the gullible, and break the will, heart and mind of the not so gullible.

        But the “feel” of this election season is just a bit different than 2016. The Democrat Party has spent the last 4 years committing widespread violence. From the Russian hoax to impeachment to the phony pandemic crisis and lock down, to the Democrat Party burning down the homes, businesses and cities of its own voter base, Bolshevik violence has been the Democrat Party’s order of the day.

        And I think most of America is sick and tired of it.

        President Trump’s brawling mauling of Chris Wallace and Joe Biden and his resounding, lightening quick victory over his COVID-19 infection are what the spirit of America feels like going into the 2020 election. I believe this spirit of America will gather around its human form, Donald Trump, with the force of a category 5 hurricane.

        Inside every American is a Donald Trump just waiting to get out. And this November 2020, 10’s of millions of Americans will unleash their spirit by getting out to vote.

      • I’m pretty sure their polling is asking everybody where they work for their opinion. A pollster is like an accountant. A good one can make the numbers say whatever you want them to say.

    • What about the bettors?? Betting odds strongly in Biden’s favor

    • Gonzo has it!!! There it is…. The polls will get closer to reality as the election nears, al least the ones that care about credibility!!! The others will still be trying to convince the fair weather Republican voter that it’s a waste of time to go vote, defeat is inevitable

  3. I have friends and family members that no doubt will be voting for Biden. They will vote for him because they have always voted straight D and for no other reason. These are the voters that do not follow the news, no clue on policies least not the economy and believe everything they hear. Guess what – they are all women, surprise.

    There will always be uninformed voters, but there are far more voters that have been affected by Democrats than my small circle. The only question now and is always the main factor, how much can Dems cheat. Let’s hope everyone votes in person!

    • Those women voters who always vote ‘D’ may not watch the news but like our children in school(s), they are constantly inundated by leftist thinking on TV’s shows, the television ads and what their daddy told them, so many years ago!

    • MJ – Please be sure to remind those friends and family members that Democrats vote on Wednesday, November 4th.

    • Just because we disagree on policies doesn’t mean we are misinformed or cheaters. Let’s keep the discourse civil and debate the issues!

    • WOMEN are not informed? come one man!

      they know everything!

      they vote for BDIEN because hiet womena nd women KNOW that feminsim thsi is how you can have a couchy job!

      be a whore and then ABORT the fetus!

      are not quality women…sorry to tell you pal..you are surrounded by bitches!

    • Absolutely at stake, please vote straight Republican ticket so President Trump can continue to keep his promises!

  4. Fans-my email is millstreetgazette (at) gmail.com. I love hearing from you-story ideas or feedback.

    • Build Back Better does seem like a poor copy of the real article. Its like buying a Chinese tool and expecting the function of a USA tool made in the 1950s. You do not confuse them.

    • Adam that was a very insightful article and I believe you have hit on the feeling many of us have. An article about why the major networks produce these biased polls and how they do it would be very interesting.

    • “Adam” –
      Just my 2 cents:
      If you value the anonymity of your pen name and wish to maintain your secret identity, I would respectfully submit that you may not want to include such personally-identifying info in your end-of-article bio. It would be all too easy for someone with ill intent to research “Kansas City, MO attorneys who specialize in labor and employment and public administration law and earned their JD at UK”, determine who you are, and out/dox you.

      Great article. I hope the exposure it got on Rush’s recent show brings you more new readers/fans in addition to myself.

  5. Looking back at the last 40 years, it is apparent how the media has been distorting reality to drive a narrative. Whether for short-term ratings or to push an agenda, it is apparent that the news is not to be trusted. The difference now is that the major news organizations are actively collaborating with each other to push an agenda that is opaque to Americans. All of these companies have massive investments in China and look to that country to meet economic performance expectations. Their interests are diametrically opposed to those of the United States.

  6. “Taking that one step further, Bush lost to a charismatic Clinton. ”

    Sure, that and H. Ross Perot getting 19% of the vote.

  7. No different than ANTIFA/BLM, the “click by” media and the D卐M☭CRAT CULT OF ABORTION, SEXUAL PERVERSION, INFANTICIDE, RACISM, TERRORISM, and HATRED believe they can terrorize Us enough to vote for them???
    They don’t scare me at all.
    The only thing I’m concerned about is:
    How many will I have to shoot before they learn to leave me alone?

  8. The dems will likely get slaughtered on election day. Don’t let the cat out of the bag though. We need them to imagine they will win in a landslide.

  9. Correction. HW Bush lost due to Perot.
    Trump did it the right way. Instead of running third party like Perot, Trump took over one of the political parties. That’s the way you get rid of these basterds….

    • That is simply not true. Perot pulled fairly evenly from both parties.

    • All Perot did was to keep Clinton from achieving a majority vote. I voted for Bush because a vote for a third party is a wasted vote, but I didn’t like my choice selection

    • The data does not agree with this assessment. If you’re assuming that a majority of Perot voters would have voted for Bush in the absence of Perot, history disagrees with you.

      Three factors largely played into H.W. Bush losing. The economy was in a recession, he raised taxes, and Americans were looking for a party other than the Republicans that had been in power since 1980.

    • He did not. Perot was my first vote and I wear that like a badge. I never would have voted if not for him, I would have plain sat out. My husband, hundreds of miles away when we were too young to have met yet did exactly the same. Third party candidates typically appeal to those who would not vote otherwise. I can tell you every time I say out an election and why. Thank Rob Paul for lighting the fire under us. We knew we’d vote for Trump the moment he announced his candidacy and that has not changed.

  10. Personal observations:

    1. I live in a fairly politically mixed area and I see lots of Trump campaign stuff and even two sizeable rallies. For Biden no rallies and only a smattering of bumper stickers.

    2. On Facebook, my Trump friends are going bonkers to the point of occasionally going to Facebook Jail. The liberals at most post “Orange Man Bad” articles from biased sources. Without fail these postings get memed to pieces and any liberals trying to counter them get deluged.

    I’m still worried Biden will win, but this gives me hope!

  11. It’s a wonder how pollsters and the media try so hard to convince everyone what can be seen by their own eyes. My best argument against regressives is to expose them to the video clip of SCJ Clarence Thomas’s historical comment of “high tech lynching” and “rather than being hung from a tree”, and then point out the Senator who ramrodded that committee…Joe Biden. Most have never seen it because they are young. Rarely a comment of defense after that except from the rabid professor types.

  12. I think the polls do nothing but help President Trump get re-elected. Most Trump voters will not discuss who they are voting for, but will get themselves up, dressed and to the polls come election day. Conservatives are tired of having everything we hold dear destroyed by liberals and having liberal agenda being pushed into our faces and then calling us racist, homophobic, xenophobic or hypocrites. If what I believe offends you, you are free to believe what you want, but I don’t have to watch it, listen to it or agree with it. That is what is called a free country.

  13. The pollsters are trying to help Biden by dishonestly rigging the polls to discourage Republicans from voting and swaying mushy independents to believe that Trump must be bad because most people are against him.
    A revealing polling question that unexpectedly favors Trump winning: Who do you think your neighbor will vote for? Another: Who do you think is most likely to win?

  14. The phrase “actions speak louder than words” comes to mind, and maybe we should amend slightly to say “actions speak louder than polls”. The actions by the Biden campaign and the Democrats in general betray them as knowing they are losing, and knowing the polls are wrong.

    It’s abundantly clear that Trump’s opponents have learned nothing from their defeat in 2016, as evidenced by their actions in virtually every other area. Why would be believe they learned their lesson with regard to polls?

  15. In Godfather 1 Virgil Sollozo was given the contract to take out Vito Corleone. Sollozo said to the Corleone Consigliari “Five shots. They hit him with five shots and he’s still alive!”

    I feel the same way about Trump. The Libs are whining: “Six times…we hit him with Russia Collusion, we spied on his campaign, we tried to take out his crew with fake FISA warrants, we hit him with Ukraine and impeachment, we maligned his SCOTUS picks, we sabotaged the debate with Chris Wallace, we hit him with COVID, and he’s alive and still President!”

    Trump in a landslide. MAGA

  16. By observing yard signs around here, Biden will finish fourth behind garage sales and free kittens.

  17. I am a registered Repub for over 50 years in SE PA. I do not know what list joe bought in PA but they were sending all sorts of email text, messages,phone calls begging for money. counting on me to vote for him in nov. Joe wont know when Nov is!!!!!
    I am firmly behind the Pres. but joe still thinks I am in his win column.
    Trust me I had a mom who went thru dementia I know what it looks like and sounds like. If god forbid he wins 90 days Cruella will have him removed and the leftist agenda will take off.
    Lastly I am the silent majority I do not want to fight nor be in a protest or riot. I keep my politics between me and my friends. If someone voices a different opinion I respect it and move on. But if they come down my street and tell me to get out of my house then bring it on.

  18. To those voting for Biden because they don’t like Trump, I offer one of my favorite similes…

    “Voting for Biden because you don’t like Trump is like eating poop because you don’t like broccoli.”

  19. They are having to skew the polls more heavily Democrat to keep up the myth Biden is leading. Again, something they wouldn’t have to do if he were actually leading

      • I believe these polls are wrong for many reasons. How on earth is a candidate like Biden constantly leading in the polls when he is losing 2 major demographic groups. African Americans and Latino voters. Hmmm. Something is telling me the polls are not just going to be wrong. But Biden is likely to even lose Virginia as well. If Trump is garnering 18% of blacks already and he won African American voters by a mere 1% point more than Mitt Romney did in 2012. Than it’s safe to assume that Trump is going to win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin and even Minnesota by quite a bit. Think about it. Minnesota. Which hasn’t gone for a GOP since Nixon. Trump is going to win Florida, is going to definitely win Texas. He will even win New Mexico and even Colorado. Trump is definitely going to win Arizona and also win Nevada. Trump isn’t going to win New Hampshire because of the college voters in that state. Trump will likely win Maine’s congressional district #2 as he’s up by 4 points in that area. It’s like 2016 but hyped on steroids. Trump is going to win this election by a landslide. Also Trump will win North Carolina as well along with Georgia.

  20. Deja vu all over again. Once before in my memory has a politician, a presidential candidate, been so universally condemned, castigated, insulted, vilified,… by the media and the Democrats. The year was 1972. The candidate was Richard Milhous Nixon. He beat George McGovern 49 States to 1. Oh, he also lost the District of Columbia.

  21. Two lines from “Sundown,” a song by Gordon Lightfoot from decades ago, fully captures Dems’ sentiments:
    Sometimes, I think it’s a sin,
    When I feel like I’m winning when I’m losing again.

    Dems better get used to losing, because no one’s buying their Leftist crap anymore.

  22. I thank the writer of the piece here for pointing out the obvious– if those polls had any meaning, campaigns would not inevitably do internal polling at their own cost.

    The few who say “I’ve always voted dem” (I know a couple) are badly informed people who have their tv’s tuned to corporate news 24/7 and, if they go online, go to corporate news sites.

    The talking points from them are so reliably off that one recently used the “you get all your news from fox” line on us (from another state), and we had to remind him we have not had a tv in the house for years. He then, slightly puzzled, asked, “Then where DO you get your news?” as if he had never heard of independent media (and I imagine he hasn’t.)

    Hard to believe, but true, that in a year like 2020, there are still a few that do not know their party has been hijacked, leaving that “I’ve always voted dem” line sounding as dated as someone claiming they like “disco”…..

  23. Speaking of “ ubiquity of MAGA hats and yard signs,” If we were actually able to wear the hats and knock the signs in the ground You’d see THOUSANDS more of them. I just don’t want my teeth knocked out by a violent drooling moron.

  24. If I had to guess it is because most Biden supporters are scared of another upset. While I do feel like he is winning, Trump’s constant threats to steal the election, refuse to accept it, or if current news stories are accurate, encourage an armed rebellion have most Americans downright scared.

    I’d really like to see the rhetoric toned down.

  25. Trump, with all of his faults, is an American patriot, who wants to see the country continue to achieve success, and yes, greatness. THE bastion of freedom, the USA. He will win. The USA will prosper. And
    the lunatic left fringe will sink into the vortex of historical failures.

  26. I just donated $100.00 to the Trump campaign. I don’t know that it will help but it cannot hurt Mr. Trump. It was the least I could do. I also sent $29.00 to Joe Collins’s campaign against Congress Person Waters in Cal. I hope he wins too…

  27. In my neighborhood Biden is coming in third, behind Trump and Ms Garage Sale…

  28. So all those polls are wrong ? Really? 200,000 dead of a virus that Trump knew was deadly and didn’t tell us. Why should we vote for him ?

  29. Spooky echo chamber you have here, Weds. morning Nov 4th is going to a rude awakening for y’all. Today’s polls underestimate the pummeling that Trump will be taking, as outside of his dog-whistle base reasonable people can all see how unhinged Trump has become. The end is near.

  30. Another point on the polls.
    Most Trump voters don’t trust the polling people to begin with. They won’t give an honest answer to the poller’s questions because they don’t trust what will be done with their answers and it’s nobody’s business how they vote.
    The polls are off by a sizable margin.

  31. The pollsters had better be right on the money this year, after losing so much public confidence in 2016. Yes, sure, they managed to get the percentage right, but, even well into election night, Clinton was still holding a 90%+ in the betting odds. If Trump manages to pull out a win, we will have to assume that scientific sampling by age, gender, geography, socio-economic level, etc. simply cannot predict a winner. They will have been asking the wrong questions of the wrong people.

  32. Ha ha Ha! You raging morons removed my comment saying that you traitorous idiots cant see how Biden is destroying Trump because you bitter, unhinged, racist psychos live in your own media bubble and so cant see whats happening, proving my point exactly! LOL! Think of me when Trump the Traitor is defeated and also when he is indicted by Cy Vance up in NYC!

  33. Or maybe the Democrats have wised up after 2016 and decided not to run victory laps before the race is over. You would be wise to do the same.

  34. Trump still leads among men, but he has lost the women. According to today’s CNN poll, he is down by over 30 points with women voters. It looks hopeless.

  35. Hmmm, let’s see now – the number one true white supremacist in America, Richard Spencer, has said he’s voting a straight Democratic ticket. That should tell you something. However, “white supremacisy” is a belief or idea of which speech is an expression. Unless something has changed I don’t know about. we still have freedom of speech and expression in this country. Condemning distasteful expression is un-American.

    • Sure he is. Because he, like the rest of the Democrats, believe that a person is defined by the color of their skin, that black people should be separate from others and that one race is superior. BLM and the KKK agree on almost everything with just a few minor differences.

    • Condemning distasteful expression in un-American. This is b.s. It’s just another facet of “free speech”

  36. I expect President Trump to be re-elected, no Republican won the white house without winning Ohio, since 1968. At the present, Trump is leading Biden in Ohio.

  37. It doesn’t *feel* like Biden’s winning because everyone remembers 2016 when all the smart people just knew that Trump couldn’t possibly win. This year the feelings are going in the other direction~ it feels like Trump is losing. All the unforced errors are piling up, compounding on each other. The President has no strategy to expand his base. Whatever hope he had of snaring enough independent or undecided voters to put him over the top, those have melted away.

  38. The reason it seems that way to you Mr. Mill is that you are a biased, uninformed fool. Trump will be trounced. Thank the gods. We are tired of the racism, incompetence and corruption of this crime family regime.

    • You say he’s racist all the time. But Hillary Clinton played that racist card to and she still lost because unlike Hillary, Trump has a proven track record of helping out minority communities!! He was a real estate business mogul. He owned many properties in New York City. Florida and in California! All those places have minority people in them. If he was racist he would have ties to the KKK. He would have ties to
      James R. Crowe
      John C. Lester
      J. Calvin Jones
      Richard R. Reed
      Frank O. McCord
      John B. Kennedy
      Which is surprising that a Kennedy has ties to the KKK which would mean all those founders are Democrats!! So please. Before you spew your hatred. Do research. Because you look like a fool if you don’t. Speaking of trouncing. Hillary was up in the polls leading up to the election. As a matter of fact. Her lead was actually increasing 3 1/2 weeks before the election. After the polls closed at 6pm, the first round of exit polls showed Hillary Clinton up as her being the next president of the United States because she would be the first female President. But after 7pm a second round of exit polls showed Trump winning when it comes to who is the candidate of change.Trump won that category by 80% to 20% for H.Clinton. By 9pm Trump was gaining ground in Ohio, North Carolina and in Florida. By 10pm Trump was ahead of H.Clinton by 7% points over her, and increasing his lead in that state. By 10:30pm. He won the state of Ohio by the AP by 11 points over H.Clinton. By 11pm Trump won the state of N.C by 5 points over H.Clinton the stock market was tumbling downward due to uncertainty. By 11:30pm Trump won Florida by 1.8 points over H.Clinton. By 11:45pm Trump won Iowa over Clinton by the same percentage points he won Ohio by. After 1am. He won the state of Wisconsin. By 2:42am he won the state of Pennsylvania and with its 20 electoral votes Donald Trump was declared president elect of the United States. Same thing will happen again. Trump is no racist, but can’t say the same for Biden or the Dem party which is the true party of the KKK. Trump 2020 MAGA!!!

    • Also there is only one GOD. He rules alone in majesty. King of all eternity. Magnify and sanctify his NAME! Yshua Ha Meshiach. May he bless this nation and watch over all the world with his eyes starring at his kingdom of Israel and his city of Jerusalem with a fervent intensity. God rules alone. He has no one above or beside him. He is the one above all things and he is even above your pathetic Gods which are nothing more than demons that God himself casted out of Heaven along with Satan. He still rules the world and the universe. From the smallest atom to the greatest of galaxies, it all is in his hands. He is the God of Avraham(Abraham), Isaac and Jakov(Jacob).

    • Correct agree 100% worst pres ever. Liar racist cheater liar liar liar Responsible for 210,000 deaths in covid19 where he did nothing but distort and deflect and hide the facts.

    • Crime family? Have you ever met a grifter bunch as bad as the Bidens? Literally both of our major enemies have paid them off, with bank records to prove it. You are hopeless.

    • If you are talking about the Biden real grafting and criminal family(son, brother,etc), his racism while praising his mentor Rbt.(KKK) Bird, his incompetence while in the Obama misadministration,then you are correct!!

    • Your impolite response is exactly the topic of many of the comments in this thread. You make an arrogant assessment without substance as well as an insult thrown in simply because someone dares to disagree with you. Your set in stone prediction is certainly not based on any correctly fulfilled past predictions. What kinda fool does that? The racism incompetence and corruption are a product of the left stemming from their seething foam at the mouth hatred for YOUR President…because he stopped you dead in your tracks from turning America into Amerika.

    • Huh. If you’re tired of racism, incompetence, and corruption, why in the world would you EVER vote for Joe Biden?

  39. There so much wrong with your so called article. There’s sooo many assumptions and just crap said that comes straight out your behind.

    EVERYBODY i know will vote against trump… it doesnt matter if they like Biden or not, a vote for Biden counts just as mucb if they hate him or love him. Every single piece of data points to trump losing by a landslide and he will. Its you worthless zombies that want the opposite to happen, and rely on assumptions and wishful thinking to come up with your ludicrous BS. I cant wait to see your stupid faces when he loses, I really cant.

  40. Why Doesn’t It Feel Like Biden is Winning? Because Biden isn’t winning at all.
    Here are where the polls are actually at, sourcing the battleground state pollsters that got it right in 2016.
    (T for Trump and B for Biden.)
    IA +2-4T, OH +6-8T both safe for T.
    PA +1 and MN leans T.
    WI +6B, MI +2B,
    NV leans B,
    AZ, Marricopa is R+4-6,
    FL+2T, NC, GA, TX are all safe for T.
    NH leans T, ME will split
    If Trump carries OH, IA, FL and AZ, he only needs one rust belt state, MN, WI, MI or PA to win (266+). While Biden need all those states to win (274).

  41. It feels that way to u and the out of touch with reality Deplorables in the soon defunct party of no nra use u indeed are in denial that your impeachedforever loser racist liar cheater mysogynistic covid19 weakly is so far behind u can’t see it. ENJoy your fantasy ride and see u nov3rd when orange clown goes down hard to a landslide record loss. Then blames the media As all Love to
    Do.

  42. Whatever … you have 3 weeks before you live in the ignominy and agony of defeat and crawl back from what ever backwater hole you came out of.

  43. Keep dreaming, it will be over on Nov. 4th. Biden landslide coming
    I quess hope runs eternal

  44. This is one of the most wishful, emotions based, baseless waste of words I’ve seen in words – An entire article based on the author’s wishes interpreting reality rather than any discussion of any actual facts about national sentiment

    • I agree with you,B I D E N………Biggest Idiot Democrat’s ever nominated

  45. I hope you are right. I am afraid the President’s disastrous debate strategy alienated millions of voters who had been too busy to pay much attention to politics. His goal was to win the undecided voters, that’s it. He could have shown the world his calm and relaxed and intelligent side that we all have seen in his press conferences in recent months. But what we saw instead was rudeness. Its unfortunate. Again, I hope you are right.

  46. I have a question for Adam Mill: why are you so convinced the polls THIS YEAR must be uniquely wrong?

    Historically, the general election polls have been fairly accurate if you look at the polling average. Sometimes there has been a slight bias / error in favor of the Republican nominee (as happened in 2012), and sometimes in favor of the Democrat (as in 2016). Four years ago, the final polls predicted Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by 3% when she in fact won by 2.1%. The much maligned state polls also by and large correctly predicted the outcome although the margin was sometimes off. Hence the final RealClearPolitics predicted was Clinton would win 272 electoral votes vs. 266 for Trump. A razor thin margin, in other words! Trump ended up losing Nevada (where he was the narrow favorite on election night) but Clinton unexpected lost Michigan, Wisconsin (where there had been very few polls during the last week) as well as Pennsylvania and along with it, the election. But the remaining 47 state races ended up as expected.

    Since the polls pretty much nailed the 2018 mid-terms, what makes you think Biden’s current 9 point (avg.) lead in the national polls is a complete hoax and a complete mirage? After all, the pollsters include several right wing outfits such as FoxNews, the Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen Reports and others. Why do you assume also these pollsters are dead wrong and/or outright lying? I remember conservatives were saying the same thing in 2012 when they could not believe Mitt Romney was actually losing to Obama. There was Dean ‘Unskewed Polls’ Chambers who predicted Romney would win in a landslide ( https://www.businessinsider.com/unskewed-pollster-dean-chambers-nate-silver-election-dick-morris-michael-barone-2012-11 )

    • “I have a question for Adam Mill: why are you so convinced the polls THIS YEAR must be uniquely wrong?”

      “Why Doesn’t It Feel Like Biden is Winning?”

      If you read the story under the above heading he explains “why”. Odd question…..

    • You’re referencing final polls, there is still a month to go. 2016 Early/mid Oct – Clinton +7.1 2012 Early/mid Oct- Romney +1.7
      I’m sure if you break it down further by state polling, it’ll be the same. Those are the ones that matter in the end.

    • It’s kind of amusing that you start off by wondering why the author doubts the polls and then proceed to later point out multiple polls that were wrong.

      As for the national polls and the 3% vs. 2.1%, two things. First, national polls are mostly useless in predicting a winner due to the electoral college. Second, understand that HRC’s popular vote victory was fueled by one state and one state only: California. It was the only state she won where she outdid Obama. If you were to reduce her tally in that state to a winning by just 1 vote, she loses the popular vote as well. Do that with any other state she won and she still wins it.

      And while you quote RCP’s final averages, you fail to actually consider what made up those averages. Was Donald Trump ahead in Nevada according to their average? Yes. Why? Because of 1 poll that showed him with a 6 point lead. That’s it. Wisconsin? There was plenty of polling done. 5 in the last week alone and all of the ones included in RCP’s average showed Clinton up by at least 6 points. 6 points! That’s a HUGE miss in polling terms. The final average was HRC +2.1. Only 3 polls in the entire history of their 2016 polling in that state showed Trump ahead and 1 of them was the very last one done, otherwise the final average would have been above 3% and outside the MoE.

      You say she “unexpectedly” lost those states. Yeah, she “unexpectedly” lost them because the expectation was that the polls were accurate!

    • I remember those “unskewed polls” – he was dead wrong. Something mysterious happened that year, Romney just disappeared for the last month of the campaign. However – this year is both different and confusing. Even the Fox polls contain heavy dem sampling. I do believe Rasmussen, and personally feel this race could go either way. But I agree with this article it doesn’t “feel” like Biden is winning. Personally, it doesn’t feel like Trump is winning either – although he looks like it!

    • You are missing the fact that the polls in the battleground states (where Hillary lost) are running ahead for Trump currently. You are also missing the fact that one sides polling is being both artificially (due to sampling, etc) and legitatemately suppressed (if you are a Trump supporter you are attacked and if you are a Biden supporter you are thought to be stupid at worst)?

      Real life example. I recently (within the last six months) complained to several of my Democratic representatives about their positions on issues. This is the first time I have ever done this. I was forced to provide a phone #. Like an idiot I gave them a real number. Prior to this I had NEVER been polled in 30+ years an adult. Now I am getting texted ALL the time asking my opinion. 99% of the questions are loaded or clearly being asked by a Dem leaning polling institution (I look all of them up before I block them). My personal experience is demonstrating that I have zero faith in polls. Harsh reality is why do we even need them? They are the tools of manipulation (either way). Who cares who is “ahead.” Make up your own mind.

    • I think a big part of why polls are suspect now versus before in my mind is no way in hell would I go public being a Trump supporter due to the potentially even violent backlash we face for our opinion. That includes my “woke” workplace. No yard signs here, no car decorations, but I’m very eager to cast my vote. I suspect I’m not alone. I’ve received a couple of poll calls and I hung up.

      The dems thoroughly control the message. Every dem attack gets full press. Earlier today I tried to google a list of failed attacks on Trump, and only left wing sites came up, so that made me concerned. People’s twitter and fb accounts get closed. I tried several different keywords for similar searches, yet found nothing. So it’s easy to feel alone in the wilderness when everything around us is orange man bad. Honestly, I’m even reluctant to post on here. It feels like WE are the resistance, the underground, or whatever, as we talk among our friends in hushed tones.

      There is no way to measure the number of people like me who are bullied to remain below the radar. Soon we will find out if the silent majority actually exists. Until then, we’ll just be subject to the enormous frustration of legitimate points being shouted out by cries of racism from edited quotes about Charlottesville. Damned effing right I’m voting R, but not one pollster knows this.

  47. Donald J Trump is Paul Newman in the movie, Slapshot. The Chiefs will win the Federal Cup this year.

  48. Trump got 62 million votes in 2016. Every one of those votes will return. He will gained another 100,000 – 200,000 votes per State, so lets say 5,000,000 additional votes. I don’t think Biden will get 67 million votes, and I don’t think he gets more votes than Hilary in States where he needs them – PA, OH, MI, WI, MN, the enthusiasm gap is just too large.

  49. This race ended this summer. Trump has been campaigning for the 2020 election since just after he got in office. Yet he can’t get anyone other than his already established base. After barely winning against a divisive candidate in 2016, he will be routed this time as Democratic turnout and enthusiasm is off the charts. Bye Don.

  50. Get out of your bubble and then its clear. Trump lost the popular vote and all the states have moved more democrat since 2016 so he will lose the popular vote MASSIVELY. There are still millions of trump supporters just not even close to the majority. The issue with the polls is they are still modelling based on 2016 turnout and vote patterns which are irrelevant. Many of Bernies supporters didnt vote and same for Black men. There is no excitement for Biden and never has been. Democrats picked him because they thought him the safest bet to beat trump. Most would vote for a shoe box over trump so dont care about anything else. Likewise with trump supporters. If you are with him still there is nothing at all that will move you. There is nothing that Biden can do wrong that Trump hasn’t done worse so nothing will stick with independent voters.

  51. If they get in no doubt will go full commie and everything they can to impose the one party state

  52. The mood of the United States isn’t captured in the polling. The Democrats and Never Trumpers are animated solely by their hatred for the threat that the Trump Administration poses to the business as usual corruption that pervades the Federal Government. The Democratic Party support for rioting, looting, and arson in cities all across America is shocking to the Normals. The Crazies antics are not going to inspire the traditional Democratic Party base to go out and vote. Trump supporters will walk through fire to cast their ballots for the President. Biden voters will heed the advice of their political leaders and stay safely at home, cowering in their basements.

  53. It doesn’t feel as if Biden is winning because he is not winning. Of course with all their voter gimmicks the Democrats may still steal it.

    • I am not convinced the polls are wrong. Indeed, I am fearful they are accurate. The reason I believe it is *possible* the polls are wrong is due to the omnipresent threat of violence by people on the left against those who speak out against them. The single biggest threat to our freedoms comes from the suppression of first amendment rights. And today it is only the left that is actively suppressing and controlling speech. The left is morphing the Democrat party into the party of Orwell, insisting we deny what we see with our own eyes. More than anything else, that is why the left must be defeated.

  54. I would like to believe this article, but part of me does not. Not all polls are controlled by the democratic party. The IBD poll and the WSJ poll are both on the right. But they show Trump losing as well. I believe it was the IBD poll that four years ago showed Trump winning, but not this time.

    There is also the fact that I think more conservatives probably lie to pollsters now, or will not speak to them, as they consider them part of the the democratic establishment. This only confounds things.

    I will place bets on the stock market, but not on this election. I don’t have a clue where it will go

    I hope the author is right.

  55. None of the three precedents, Clinton, Carter or Reagan apply.

    Clinton was running against effectively a fourth Reagan term and won because of Ross Perot. There is no strong third party challenger and Trump is running for a second/final term.

    Carter ran against Watergate (Ford has pardoned Nixon). Trump is not Nixon — in fact he’s less corrupt than Clinton.

    Carter was, at best, lackluster. Further, even if you want to compare Trump to Carter, Biden ain’t no Reagan.

    If Biden wins, its all about the changed American demographics…

  56. The reason it does not feel like Biden is winning is because nobody believes the polls. In the 2016 election, there was practically no poll that showed Trump winning. Every poll gave Clinton around 80%+ odds of winning. If you study statistics and probability, you know the chances of Trump winning was practically nil if the polls were done correctly. The betting market (correctly) relied on the polls then except that the polls were flawed.

    Even though Biden is vastly outperforming Clinton this time, the betting market still gives Trump a 35% odds of winning reelection. That tells you nobody really knows at this point.

  57. I consider myself an independent voter, and I would say this article is spot on. Observing Trump vs. Biden supporters, I have seen a couple of differences. First, both like Trump’s policies, but Biden supporters are not aware of where the policies come from. Secondly, Trump supporters speak guardedly about their support, as Anti-Trump (as opposed to Biden supporters) people are wildly irrational and relationships are threatened and ended, over support for Trump. Third, they are aware that Biden is “sun downing” but hate Trump so much that they rationalize by saying “well, he’s going to have good people around him”. What?! (Then just run Howdy Doody and donate the salary)

    Finally, Biden supporters are prime examples of “confirmation bias”, in that they are stay informed just enough to confirm their beliefs, but no further. Anything different is dismissed as fake news. I have family and friends that I consider to be highly intelligent that are dogged in their beliefs, and anything to the contrary is met with either a blank stare, or violent rejection. It’s a little scary.

  58. Today, after President Trump completed his appearance on the Rush Limbaugh show…

    Rush discussed your article in detail on air: “Why doesn’t it feel like Biden is winning?”…..

    You can see & hear it at the last hour of his show at 24 minutes & 50 seconds until end of hour.

    It was AWESOME…thank you…Marilyn

  59. My two cents: I live in a county in Georgia that is mostly Democrat. In fact, ALL of the elected officials here are Democrats. Most of the population here is black. Democrats always win here. There usually isn’t a republican in a lot of races here for local elected offices. But, I know many people here that LOVE President Trump. They respect him. They get him. They were worried when he got the Chinese flu. In 2016 I knew Trump had a chance of winning because I would hear young black men talk while I was out and about. One specific phrase I remember a young black male saying was “I want a president who is for all people”. What I got out of that comment was he didn’t think Obama was for all people. I think he and his friends felt Obama had not been for them either. I think Trump had appeal for some black voters back then who were not happy with the results of the Obama years. So even though Trump didn’t get a lot of black voters in 2016, I know even some black voters were not happy with Obama’s direction of the country and did not want to vote Democrat again. Some voted Trump and some stayed home. I think in 2020, President Trump will got a heck of a lot more minority votes because he has proven himself. Trump said what he was going to do and he has did that or tried to do that with every thing he has done. I don’t know if my county will vote straight red tickets, but I know a lot more will vote for Trump than last time and he might even win my county. I hope many will vote straight red tickets so my county can improve too, but like I said not many conservatives run for office here. Maybe Trump will change that. Trump is an awesome president and his love for America and its people has captured the hearts and minds of many. People want to get on the Trump train to greatness for our country and themselves. He has inspired many people. He has inspired young men to be entrepreneurs where I live. I honestly do not see any way that Biden could win. He is just a continuation of Obama and people voted against Obama in 2016. People who were unsure of Trump voted for him anyway because they were not happy with the Obama agenda and did not want Hillary to continue it. Now that Trump has proven himself as able to accomplish things for our country, even while being maligned by the media and Democrats and some Republicans, I don’t see how in the heck he could lose. Democrats would have to cheat in big numbers and in many ways to steal this election.

  60. Remember
    You arenot getting Joe Biden you are getting far left socialist,Marxist policies that will destroy America.

  61. My unprofessional poll as I drive around the nation shows President Trump with a lawn and field sign lead on Biden by at least 30 to 1. I drive between 2,500 and 3,500 miles per week, crossing as many as 5 states in a day. The sign lead is consistent. The instances of individuals or groups holding roadside Trump rallies are friendly and enthusiastic. I have yet to see one for Biden or anti Trump. I believe the people, not the biased media.

  62. There’s a clear disconnect here. It doesn’t feel like Biden is winning when he holds events on the campaign trail and no one shows up. Meanwhile, Trump who is supposed to be the loser here, draws thousands of supporters wherever he goes.

  63. Toxic messages here and sounded like too many trolls trying to help the really corrupt and liar of a president you ever had. Wonder whether they actually love democracy, or freedom that lots of people around the world would love to get. Freedom that you still have, should be protected from tyrants or rather authoritarian like your president. And even if he loose to Mr Biden, your next government has a heavy burden of making sure your constitution is reviewed for purging out the loopholes that trump had been using abusively throughout his term. Reform is needed, to the constitution as well as the Supreme court to make sure the balance of power works to avoid abuses by corrupt politicians in power. Saying this because, I have seen the american society came so close to having a hitler like form of government in power; under trump.

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