It is now officially “game on” time for 2020. Everything before this point has been sound and fury, signifying nothing. This is typical of American elections. For example, in July 1988, Michael Dukakis was crushing George H.W. Bush in the polls by 17 points. Guess who didn’t win that November? But now, with the parties’ conventions in the rear-view mirror, we are in the period when things like polls and momentum really count.
So let me set the table for what is taking place right now, because—shocker—the media doesn’t really want you to know the truth.
Yes, those “paragons of truth,” who are pure as the driven snow, are lying to you. It’s OK if you need to hit the fainting couch and clutch your pearls at this point, but take for example the recent story at The Atlantic alleging Trump’s disparagement of our military. Bald-faced lies, but also an indicator of what is to come: our corrupt and dishonest media will be running numerous fake stories like that in the next 60 days to try to bring Trump down.
But that’s what liars do: they lie.
Right now, the 2020 presidential race is very tight. Trump actually gets the nod for a slim lead. First, never, ever underestimate the power of incumbency: only five presidents have lost their reelection bid since 1900. Trump has a dedicated base of supporters and, because of structural advantages in the Electoral College, is in the pole position.
Lest you think I’m making this up: Trafalgar has Trump up by 2 points in Michigan. Rasmussen has a dead heat in Pennsylvania. In fact, if you dig down a little into that Rasmussen poll, among the 82 percent who say they are certain how they will vote in November, Trump is leading, 51-49 percent. National polls such as Emerson and Rasmussen show it a 1-2 point race with Biden barely clinging to the lead.
Some pollsters that I respect (read: not Fox News, just so we’re clear) think Wisconsin and Michigan are going to go for Trump, with Minnesota and Pennsylvania coin tosses and Arizona and Virginia in play, if it goes well for Trump leading into and on Election Day. The Democracy Institute poll even shows Trump winning the popular vote. The horror of it all!
But it’s the models and economic indicators that have proven reliable over multiple presidential elections that should give Democrats and their lying mainstream media propagandists pause (did I mention I think most of the press are liars? Because my fear is that it might get lost in all of this that I think they’re miserable, intellectually stunted liars).
Now I will add one caveat: the only thing that is certain in the era of Trump is that you can bank on uncertainty. That is to say, rock-solid indicators and models that have been extremely accurate for decades show one thing: Trump winning.
Take for example the S&P 500. It has correctly predicted presidential elections since 1984 (which is nine consecutive elections). If the S&P 500 rises in the three months leading up to November, it indicates that the current party will retain the White House. If it falls, then the opposition party will likely win the White House. So watch how the S&P 500 performs between August 3 and November 3. In case you’re wondering, the S&P 500 is up more than 150 points since the beginning of August.
Then look at Stony Brook political scientist Helmut Norpoth’s model, which correctly has predicted 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. Survey says: Trump crushes Biden, 362 electoral votes to 176 electoral votes.
Scoot on over to Trend Macrolytics which has correctly predicted the victor in the Electoral College in the past 17 presidential election cycles (1952-2016). An updated analysis has flipped over the last six weeks to show Trump now winning definitively in the Electoral College, 410 electoral votes to 128 electoral votes. Do I think Trump will break 400 electoral votes? Probably not. But the only thing that Trend has gotten wrong since 1952 is the margin of victory. It has always correctly predicted the ultimate winner.
But if you listen to many in the mainstream media propping up Biden, well, the senile guy hanging out in his basement 95 percent of the time is still in the lead. Sure he is. (Try not to roll your eyes too hard.) But then again, they’re liars and liars are going to lie.
This all to say that this presidential contest is a very real race. Do I think right now Trump wins on Election Day? We’re at least a political lifetime away from November, maybe two, but I do think Trump wins. So do a number of semi-honest lefties who have said the things that must not be spoken out loud when they admitted Trump will win Election Day but then concede they’ll try to figure out how to steal it afterwards.
It’s time to see the psyops of the Left for what they are: nothing less than attempts to spread disinformation about the true state of the 2020 election.