A new poll shows presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden beating President Donald Trump by double digits in the key swing states of Florida and Michigan. At the same time, a plurality of voters in Florida approves of the job Trump is doing with the economy, a key metric for determining success at the ballot box.
In Michigan, 51 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Joe Biden, while only 38 percent said they would vote for Trump.
The president fared only slightly better in Florida, where 40 percent of likely voters said they would for Trump, as opposed to 51 percent who said they’d vote for Biden.
While the results seem ominous for Trump, some of it can be explained by the phenomenon of “social desirability bias.” In 2016, it appeared that many Trump voters gave inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they would open themselves up to criticism.
In Michigan, 45 percent of adults said they approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 46 percent said they disapproved.
The president did better in Florida, where a plurality of respondents said they approved of Trump’s handling of the economy 49 percent to 45 percent.
In Florida, 44 percent of those polled said they expected Trump to win the presidential election versus 42 percent who said they believed Biden will win. In Michigan, more voters thought Biden would come out on top, 42 percent to 39 percent.
The polls also showed an enthusiasm gap between Republican and Democrat voters. In Michigan, 302 conservatives claimed to be “very interested” in voting in November, while only 246 liberals said the same. In Florida, 263 conservatives claimed to be “very interested” to the liberals’ 223.
Significantly, sixty-two percent of Trump voters in Michigan said they “strongly” supported the president, while 55 percent said they “strongly” supported Biden. In Florida, 72 percent of Trump voters said they strongly supported the president, versus only 56 percent said they strongly supported Biden.
Biden however had higher favorability ratings than Trump in both polls, with 48 percent of respondents saying they had a favorable opinion of the former vice president in Michigan, while only 37 percent said they have a favorable opinion of Trump. In Florida, 40 percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, and 50 percent said they have a favorable opinion of Biden.
President Trump got low marks in both states for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and racial tensions related to George Floyd’s death. In Michigan 60 percent of adults said they disapproved of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak, versus only 33 percent who said they approved. In Florida, 55 percent of adults disapproved versus 38 percent who approved. A whopping 62 percent of adults in Michigan said they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the George Floyd protest, while only 26 percent said they approved.
In Florida, 57 percent disapproved of the president’s handling of the George Floyd protests, while only 32 percent approved.