Why Republicans? Why?
I do not share the conventional wisdom about the metaphysical certitude of a Blue Wave™ building somewhere just over the horizon. In fact, I think that Republicans have a fairly strong record and if they stick to the Trump agenda, a very strong platform. After all, the stock market is up, wages are rising, unemployment is down, Obamacare’s much hated individual mandate is dead, and peace may break out on the Korean peninsula. That’s a pretty good hand if you can play it. But there’s the rub.
There is a chunk of the House Republican Conference determined to commit ritual political suicide. And there is another, probably larger, as yet unnamed group looking on with timid envy. The former group has 20 members so far. They intend to shake off their political coil by means of a discharge petition which would force a House vote on a massive amnesty for illegal immigrants formerly protected from the enforcement of the nation’s immigration laws by the illegal executive order Obama signed and which President Trump rescinded. If the number of Republican signers reaches 25, it will be enough to force a vote on the amnesty bill when combined with the Democrats, all of whom support the measure.
The vote would almost certainly pass with an expanded coalition: all of the Democrats plus what will probably wind up being something like half of the Republican caucus. Why half? Because once it’s clear the amnesty bill is going to pass, the group previously watching the petition-signers with timid envy won’t be able to stop themselves. They’ll want to “get on the right side of history.” (Note: whenever you hear a politician using that old chestnut to justify his or her actions you should probably hide your wallet and lock-up the kids because something bad is about to happen.)
This issue alone could hand the Democrats the massive victories in November that they could never win with their candidates and agenda of higher taxes, higher unemployment, and regulation of formerly free speech. The conventional political wisdom of triangulation says that by “tacking to the center” these Republicans will pick up supports among independents. Don’t believe it. Left leaning independents won’t swing Republican because of this and it will enrage the Republican base. Amnesty already brought down one Republican Speaker and effectively rendered the presidential aspirations of otherwise popular Republicans stillborn. (Jeb! and Marco Rubio for sure) Such a betrayal on such a hot-button issues just before an election would likely lead enough Republican voters to simply stay home in disgust and swing the entire election cycle to the Democrats.
For Republicans currently wavering in the valley of the shadow of death I make this plea: Resist the urge to self-harm. Choose life.
Here’s the current list of signers of the Republican Suicide Pact:
- Carlos Curbelo, R-Florida
- Jeff Denham, R-California
- David Valadao, R-California
- Will Hurd, R-Texas
- Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Florida
- Mia Love, R-Utah
- Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Florida
- Charlie Dent, R-Pennsylvania
- Fred Upton, R-Michigan
- David Reichert, R-Washington
- Mike Coffman, R-Colorado
- Chris Collins, R-New York
- John Faso, R-New York
- Mark Amodei, R-Nevada
- Elise Stefanik, R-New York
- Leonard Lance, R-New Jersey
- Ryan Costello, R-Pennsylvania
- Stephen Knight, R-California
- John Katko, R-New York
- David Trott, R-Michigan