A Common Sense Strategy for North Korea

By | 2018-04-21T11:16:47+00:00 April 21st, 2018|
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The United States needs to keep the military option on the table in dealing with the rogue regime in North Korea. Put simply, a state with nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them to the United States (particularly when it has expressed eagerness to do so) ought to be an unacceptable outcome for the Trump administration and the American people.

Would the use of military force against North Korea be risky? Yes, and we should weigh these risks carefully. But the fact is that pusillanimity and cowardice also carry risks, and the United States has been indulgent, even enabling, to North Korea for far too long. 

Beyond Belligerent Tweets
To his credit, President Trump has not undertaken military action lightly. He has used the strongest rhetoric in criticizing the regime of Kim Jong-un, and he has expressed a willingness to do whatever it takes to remove the nuclear threat that the country poses. He has also demonstrated remarkable patience, allowing time for diplomacy and sanctions to work.

Although his belligerent tweets (“Rocket Man,” “fire and fury”) undoubtedly got North Korea’s attention, it is more likely that tighter U.N. sanctions, engineered by U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, was the decisive factor in convincing Kim he needed to pivot from saber-rattling to diplomacy. International sanctions on North Korea have been the most comprehensive and severe of recent history and, more importantly, even North Korea’s principal sponsor, Communist China, has assisted in bringing maximum pressure to bear on Kim Jong-un.

These sanctions, combined with aggressive U.S. military deployments and maneuvers in the region, clearly have convinced the North Koreans that it’s time to change direction. North Korea’s announcement on Friday that it would suspend nuclear and missile testing is a sign the regime is finally beginning to face reality.

Thanks to the Trump Administration’s successful rhetorical, economic, and military moves, we find ourselves on the brink of peace on the Korean Peninsula. We need to do all we can to make the most of it. The contours of a comprehensive settlement with the regime of Kim Jong-un are coming into view.

Peace At Last on the Peninsula?
For years, the primary goal of the North Koreans,
vis-à-vis the United States, was to achieve a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War (some readers may be shocked to learn that this wasn’t accomplished long ago) and a security guarantee that, in effect, removes any possibility that the United States would pursue “regime change” in North Korea. That North Korea has stubbornly sought nuclear weapons and missile technology for the last couple of decades is largely a consequence of America’s equally stubborn refusal to give ground on a treaty or a security guarantee. Conceding those points would involve no real sacrifice on our part, and could immeasurably reduce North Korean suspicions.

Fact is, the North Korean leadership inhabits a parallel world of Stalinist semi-lunacy. While Kim and his close associates are not suicidal or obviously self-destructive, they have been born and bred to believe that the United States of America is their sworn enemy and will stop at nothing to destroy us if they continue to feel threatened. The presence of powerful U.S. military forces in the region, including approximately 25,000 American troops in South Korea, does nothing to reassure the paranoid North Koreans. Their pursuit of nuclear weapons and long-range missile technology makes sense when viewed from within that milieu as it is based on their desire to deter what they view as U.S. aggression and their (irrational) fear of American “imperialism.”

What a Deal Might Look Like
A treaty to end the Korean War is long overdue. The United States should happily agree to this condition, and it should engage in whatever bilateral or multilateral talks are needed to facilitate it. A security guarantee is also a reasonable request on North Korea’s part. This certainly will not create anything like an alliance between the U.S. and North Korea. It would more likely take the form of a Non-Aggression Pact between our two countries.

Again, this is not a sacrifice on our part, since we have never had any intention of attacking North Korea. Why would we? We would be inviting terrible retaliation on our allies and potentially Chinese intervention. Much as we might like to rescue the people of North Korea from communist oppression, the cost of doing so, or even attempting to do so, is much too high. It would be far better to reassure the North Korean regime that we respect its sovereign rights.

What other elements could a comprehensive deal include? Clearly, North Korea must denuclearize in a way that is total and verifiable (but not necessarily immediate). North Korea would also need to cease its criminal enterprises, including cyber warfare and arms smuggling. Meanwhile, the United States should consider changing the disposition of its military forces in the region to assuage lingering North Korean fears. In time, the United States, South Korea, and North Korea should all agree to drawdown their conventional forces on the peninsula. The U.S. could also gradually eliminate sanctions against North Korea, and full diplomatic relations could be achieved.

All sides have much to gain by reducing the potential for armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Arguably, no one has anything to gain from a war that could turn nuclear very quickly.

President Trump, by bringing fresh eyes and an iron will to our North Korean imbroglio, has opened the door to peace. Let us seize the day and make the wise choices that will allow this door to stay open. The people of North and South Korea may not be united and free overnight. But peace would create the potential for further progress in the North. Who can say where that will lead?

Photo credit: Jung Yeon-je/AFP/Getty Images

About the Author:

Nicholas L. Waddy
Nicholas L. Waddy, an associate professor of history at SUNY Alfred, blogs at www.waddyisright.com.